Grange Planning Brain

title: Beveridge Electricity Supply Growth and AusNet Network Augmentation council: mitchell state: vic category: growth-area classification: MAJOR status: in-progress last_compiled: 2026-05-31 source_docs:

  • 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf
  • 20250926-beveridge-rit-d-osr.pdf

Beveridge Electricity Supply Growth and AusNet Network Augmentation

Beveridge’s electricity constraint is no longer a future servicing issue; AusNet identifies that the KLO14 and KLO24 22 kV feeders have already exceeded their 14.5 MVA ratings, with the wider Kalkallo zone substation expected to exceed its 97.5 MVA rating from FY2029 under system-normal conditions (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.10, 13). The practical planning consequence is that Beveridge and adjoining parts of the North Growth Corridor require a major distribution network augmentation by 2028 if growth-area connections, reliability, and electrification demand are to be supported without escalating reliance on temporary generation and load shedding (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.3, 25).

Background

AusNet’s RIT-D is focused on supply security limitations in the Beveridge supply area within Mitchell Shire and the Victorian Planning Authority’s North Growth Corridor (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.3). The RIT-D sits beside, rather than inside, the planning scheme process: it responds to load created by population growth, approved precinct planning, freight precinct activity, and wider electrification rather than rezoning land itself (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.9, 11).

The population base changed sharply before the RIT-D commenced: AusNet records Beveridge growing from 1,874 residents in the 2016 Census to 4,642 residents in the 2021 Census, an average annual growth rate of about 30 per cent (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.3). AusNet also cites Victoria in Future 2023 forecasts for Mitchell Shire growing from 49,460 people in 2021 to 69,600 people in 2026, equal to about 8.1 per cent annual growth across the whole municipality (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.3).

AusNet links the forward load problem to the approved Beveridge North West Precinct Structure Plan, which it says will ultimately comprise about 15,000 dwellings, associated town centres, schools, community facilities, and open space, and to the Beveridge Interstate Freight Terminal Stage 1a planning scheme amendment approved in August 2025 (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.9). AusNet also identifies the existing Beveridge Central Precinct Structure Plan and other adjacent approved and proposed PSPs as part of the same demand context (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.9).

Analysis

The binding constraint is local distribution capacity, not only regional growth policy

The current supply arrangement is a rural 22 kV distribution network fed partly from the Kalkallo zone substation, with the two relevant AusNet feeders being KLO14 and KLO24 (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.8-10). KLO supplies more than 17,439 AusNet customers through five 22 kV feeders and more than 13,448 Jemena Electricity Network customers through four 22 kV feeders, making the constraint a shared network pressure rather than a single-estate servicing issue (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.3).

The mechanism is straightforward: the feeders were built for rural and fringe demand, but the load profile is moving toward urban growth-area demand, and both KLO14 and KLO24 are now above their 14.5 MVA summer and winter feeder ratings (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.10, 13). Under a 10 per cent probability of exceedance forecast, KLO14 has 3.0 MVA of overload in FY2026 and 42.7 MVA by FY2032, while KLO24 has 2.7 MVA of overload in FY2026 and 14.8 MVA by FY2032 (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.10). Combined feeder overload therefore rises from 5.7 MVA in FY2026 to 57.5 MVA in FY2032, which is the quantified capacity gap that drives the RIT-D (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.10-11).

The zone substation constraint follows the feeder constraint. KLO’s system-normal overload is forecast at 0.0 MVA in FY2026 to FY2028, then 8.4 MVA in FY2029, 16.4 MVA in FY2030, 25.7 MVA in FY2031, and 38.7 MVA in FY2032 (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.10). On an N-1 basis, KLO is already exposed in FY2026 with 14.7 MVA of forecast overload, rising to 87.0 MVA by FY2032 (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.10).

Reliability risk becomes a planning constraint when it affects connection sequencing

AusNet’s expected unserved energy analysis converts the capacity gap into reliability risk. Total expected unserved energy is forecast to rise from 15.9 MWh per annum in FY2026 to 116,775 MWh per annum in FY2032, with a monetised reliability impact rising from 0.7 million per annum to 5,312 million per annum in real 2025 dollars (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.11). KLO14 is the dominant feeder risk, rising from 10.3 MWh per annum of expected unserved energy in FY2026 to 102,521 MWh per annum in FY2032 (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.11).

This matters for planning because the electricity network becomes a practical staging control even where land-use approvals exist. AusNet states that unaddressed capacity shortfalls could increase the risk of involuntary load shedding, inhibit new customer connections, and risk non-compliance with AusNet’s regulatory obligations (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.11). In plain terms, the PSP may describe where urban land can go, but the feeder and substation ratings determine whether new dwellings, local centres, schools, and employment uses can be connected at the required pace (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.9-11).

Temporary management is already being used. During the 2024-25 summer period, AusNet reports about 11.4 MWh of load shed across KLO14 and KLO24 to prevent thermal overload, supplemented by mobile generators providing 4.9 MW at KLO14 and 3 MW at KLO24 (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.3). For the 2025-26 summer, AusNet installed 12 MW of temporary generation at Wallan, allocated as 6 MW to KLO14 and 6 MW to KLO24, but it notes that the constrained land size limits future expansion or additional generation units (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.3).

The available operational workarounds are exhausted

The RIT-D record shows little remaining ability to solve the problem through switching, feeder transfers, or existing demand management. AusNet reports zero peak transfer capacity for KLO14 and KLO24 from FY2026 through FY2032, and only 3.8 MVA of KLO transfer capacity in FY2026 before falling to zero in later years (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.14). The remaining adjacent options are constrained because DRN22 is a non-REFCL feeder, KMS12 is capacity constrained, and KMS12 is forecast to exceed its PoE10 threshold by 2027 (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.11).

Existing demand management is also too small to substitute for augmentation. AusNet records only 0.4 MVA of demand management capacity at KLO, 0.2 MVA at KLO14, and 0.3 MVA at KLO24 across FY2026 to FY2032 (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.14). These amounts are minor beside the 57.5 MVA feeder shortfall forecast by FY2032, and AusNet also notes that customer participation is voluntary, so full demand management capacity may not be available at peak demand (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.11, 14).

The OSR tested whether non-network or stand-alone power system responses could be proposed. The OSR said a full non-network solution would need dispatchable capacity rising from 5.5 MW for up to 30 hours per annum in FY2026 to 55.8 MW for up to 7,431 hours per annum in FY2032 (Source: 20250926-beveridge-rit-d-osr.pdf, p.20). AusNet received no submissions or alternative non-network or SAPS proposals during the OSR consultation period, so the DPAR no longer treats Option 3 as credible for this RIT-D (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.15).

Network option 1 moves capacity closer to the growth area

AusNet’s proposed preferred option is a new Beveridge 66/22 kV zone substation with two 33 MVA transformers, two 22 kV busbars, and two new 22 kV feeder exits connected to the existing 22 kV distribution network near the existing 66 kV sub-transmission line on the western side of Beveridge (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.17, 25). The option includes land purchase, two 20/33 MVA 66/22 kV power transformers, two new 22 kV urban switch-room switchboards with REFCL equipment, two new 22 kV underground/overhead feeders, and required primary, civil, structural, and secondary equipment for a new 66 kV line entry at remote ends (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.18).

The planning logic is locational. Option 1 removes the existing overload on KLO14 and KLO24 and places future load growth onto new feeders at a Beveridge zone substation rather than extending long 22 kV feeders from Kalkallo (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.17). The capital cost is 94.9 million in real 2025 dollars, comprising 62.2 million for the zone substation, 30.2 million for sub-transmission and distribution lines, and 2.5 million for land, with ongoing operating and maintenance cost of $1.0 million per annum (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.18, 25).

Network option 2 is cheaper but weaker as a growth-area staging response

Option 2 would install a third 66/22 kV 33 MVA transformer and third 22 kV bus at the existing Kalkallo zone substation, then run two new 22 kV feeders to Beveridge using underground cables from KLO (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.19). AusNet says this option would remove expected unserved energy completely until around 2030, after which augmentation closer to the Beveridge supply area could be considered (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.19).

Although Option 2 has a lower capital cost at 73.4 million in real 2025 dollars and 0.7 million per annum of operating and maintenance cost, AusNet identifies significant delivery risks because KLO is about 11 kilometres from Beveridge and the route would require underground cables along or near the Hume Freeway corridor (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.19-20). AusNet states that previous overhead infrastructure proposals along the Hume Freeway were declined by relevant authorities because of alignment issues with long-term expansion plans, and that underground delivery would require road and rail approvals plus easements from private landowners across a corridor exceeding about 11 kilometres (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.20).

For land-use planning, the difference is not only capital cost. Option 2 appears more like a bridging solution because AusNet says it removes EUE only until around 2030, while Option 1 creates a new local zone substation with provision for an additional transformer and bus in the future (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.17, 19). That distinction matters because the growth-area load is tied to multiple PSPs and the BIFT context rather than a short, one-off connection request (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.9).

The economic assessment strongly favours the new Beveridge zone substation

AusNet assessed the credible network options over a 30-year period and assumed a 45-year asset life for network options (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.20). The DPAR ranks Option 1 first, with PV gross economic benefit of 105,150 million, PV capital and O&M cost of 96.2 million, and PV net economic benefit of 105,054 million in real 2025 dollars (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.24). Option 2 ranks second, with PV gross economic benefit of 91,731 million, PV capital and O&M cost of 73.4 million, and PV net economic benefit of 91,657 million in real 2025 dollars (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.24).

The result is robust across AusNet’s sensitivity tests. Under lower-bound assumptions, Option 1 remains ahead of Option 2 for project cost, value of customer reliability, discount rate, and maximum demand sensitivities (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.24). Under upper-bound assumptions, Option 1 also remains ahead of Option 2 across the same four sensitivity categories (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.24).

Timing is the critical planning interface

AusNet’s timing test shows the annualised cost of the preferred option at 7.3 million per annum from FY2027 to FY2031, while gross economic benefit is already 251 million in FY2027 and rises to $3,743 million in FY2031 (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.25). Because the gross economic benefit already exceeds annualised cost, AusNet says the proposed investment timing is determined by construction period rather than by waiting for a later economic trigger (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.25). With a two-year construction period, AusNet proposes commissioning by 2028 (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.25).

This timing is the key cause-and-effect chain for Beveridge North West PSP, Beveridge Central PSP, and the Beveridge Interstate Freight Terminal. If the 2028 augmentation proceeds, the distribution network is planned to absorb load now being forecast from approved and proposed growth-area activity; if it slips, AusNet’s own do-nothing forecast shows the feeder shortfall growing from 20.1 MVA in FY2028 to 33.7 MVA in FY2029 and 57.5 MVA in FY2032 (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.10, 25).

Current Status

AusNet published the Options Screening Report on 24 October 2025 and invited OSR submissions by 23 January 2026 (Source: 20250926-beveridge-rit-d-osr.pdf, pp.1, 24). AusNet published the Draft Project Assessment Report dated 24 March 2026, reported that no alternative non-network or SAPS proposals were received during the OSR consultation period, and identified Option 1 as the proposed preferred option (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.1, 15, 24-25). DPAR submissions were due on or before 5 May 2026, and AusNet expected to publish the Final Project Assessment Report before the end of June 2026 (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.26).

Dependencies

  • Blocks: The unresolved supply constraint can inhibit new customer connections in the Beveridge supply area, and AusNet identifies this as one of the consequences of leaving the capacity shortfall unaddressed (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.11).
  • Blocked by: Delivery of the preferred option depends on completing land purchase, constructing the new 66/22 kV zone substation, installing the new transformers, switchboards, REFCL equipment, feeders, and 66 kV line-entry works, and completing a two-year delivery program for commissioning by 2028 (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.17-18, 25).
  • Informed by: The RIT-D is informed by AusNet’s 2025 maximum demand forecasts, load-duration curves, asset ratings, asset unavailability assumptions, load transfer capacity, and demand management assumptions (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.12-14).
  • Implements: The augmentation supports reliable electricity supply and new customer connections in the Beveridge supply area as demand grows from the North Growth Corridor, the Beveridge North West PSP, the Beveridge Central PSP, adjacent PSPs, and BIFT-related activity (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.9, 11).
  • Conflicts with: Option 2 has corridor and approval risks associated with the Hume Freeway route, underground feeder requirements, road and rail authority approvals, and private easements across about 11 kilometres (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.20).

The electricity supply area does not align neatly with one local planning project. KLO14 and KLO24 supply Beveridge, Wallan, parts of Wandong and Whittlesea, and surrounding areas, so the augmentation has relevance across Mitchell Shire growth areas and nearby northern metropolitan fringe communities (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.3, 8). KLO also supplies both AusNet and Jemena Electricity Network customers, with more than 17,439 AusNet customers and more than 13,448 Jemena customers connected through the broader KLO feeder set (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.3).

The planning linkage is strongest with the North Growth Corridor, Beveridge North West Precinct Structure Plan, Beveridge Central Precinct Structure Plan, and Beveridge Interstate Freight Terminal, because AusNet expressly cites these growth-area and freight precinct decisions as part of the demand context for the RIT-D (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.9). The source set does not include the primary VPA PSP documents, the BIFT amendment material, or detailed municipal infrastructure sequencing documents, so this page can identify the electricity dependency but cannot quantify lot-release staging, land-use sequencing, or precinct-by-precinct connection demand from primary planning documents (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.9).

Gaps in This Analysis

The source corpus is thin for a full growth-area planning assessment because it contains AusNet RIT-D material but not the primary PSP, amendment, or infrastructure sequencing documents. The most important missing sources are the Beveridge North West PSP, Beveridge Central PSP, BIFT Stage 1a planning scheme amendment material, any development contributions or infrastructure contributions plans, and any VPA or council staging plans that identify dwelling, employment, school, town-centre, and freight-demand timing (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.9).

The source corpus also does not include the Final Project Assessment Report expected before the end of June 2026, so the current page records the DPAR position rather than the final RIT-D decision (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, p.26). The available documents identify the preferred network option, cost, timing, and reliability mechanism, but they do not provide cadastral-level land-take mapping for the secured Beveridge zone substation site, connection applications by precinct, subdivision staging forecasts, or planning permit-level trigger points (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.17-18).

These gaps should be recorded in _gaps as a critical corpus gap for the Beveridge PSP and BIFT primary planning documents, and as an important gap for the forthcoming AusNet FPAR once published. Until those documents are available, the electricity analysis can explain the network capacity mechanism and the 2028 augmentation dependency, but it cannot allocate the constraint precisely across individual PSP stages, land parcels, or development fronts (Source: 20260324-beveridge-rit-d-dpar.pdf, pp.9-11, 25).

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