Grange Planning Brain

title: Managed Growth Strategy and Housing and Neighbourhood Character Strategy Planning Scheme Amendment council: greater-bendigo state: vic category: amendment classification: MAJOR status: in-progress last_compiled: 2026-05-31 source_docs:

  • agendas-and-meeting-minutes-city-greater-bendigo-council-meeting-agenda-february-16-2026.txt
  • web-research-L0-managed-growth-strategy-council-page-a4165112f1.txt
  • web-research-L0-managed-growth-strategy-2c9c788afd.txt
  • web-research-L0-plans-strategies-and-documents-54276106c0.txt
  • web-research-L0-managed-growth-strategy-engagement-and-background-reports-c960167c53.txt
  • web-research-L0-draft-managed-growth-strategy-attachment-d4cc534016.txt

Managed Growth Strategy and Housing and Neighbourhood Character Strategy Planning Scheme Amendment

This amendment is the statutory bridge between Greater Bendigo’s adopted long-term growth strategy and the Greater Bendigo Planning Scheme. Its practical effect is to move the municipality from a mostly broad General Residential Zone pattern toward a differentiated housing framework, using minimal, incremental and substantial change areas, selected Urban Growth Boundary changes, revised residential zones, and selected Neighbourhood Character Overlay and Significant Landscape Overlay changes (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.4-5, 62-65).

The amendment matters because the strategy identifies a mismatch between where Bendigo’s housing has been delivered and where the municipality says future housing should be directed. The MGS seeks to shift urban housing from the current pattern of about 47 per cent infill and 53 per cent greenfield toward 70 per cent infill and 30 per cent greenfield, while still maintaining a staged greenfield pipeline in Marong, Maiden Gully, Huntly and later Strathfieldsaye (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.20-24).

Background

The Managed Growth Strategy was adopted on September 16, 2024 and establishes a residential framework for accommodating population and housing growth to 2056 (Source: web-research-L0-managed-growth-strategy-council-page-a4165112f1.txt). The council engagement page states that the strategy is paired with the Housing and Neighbourhood Character Strategy, and that together they respond to a need to accommodate around 87,000 additional residents by 2056 (Source: web-research-L0-managed-growth-strategy-engagement-and-background-reports-c960167c53.txt).

The planning work followed earlier consultation through Imagine Greater Bendigo in 2021, an Issues and Opportunities Paper in 2021-2022, agency work in 2023, draft strategy consultation from May 28 to July 12, 2024, and final adoption in September 2024 (Source: web-research-L0-managed-growth-strategy-engagement-and-background-reports-c960167c53.txt). The amendment is not yet the final planning control package: the engagement page says the City will seek Ministerial authorisation for a planning scheme amendment to implement zone and overlay changes, with a separate public exhibition process to follow (Source: web-research-L0-managed-growth-strategy-engagement-and-background-reports-c960167c53.txt).

By February 16, 2026, the amendment had moved into a state review pathway. Council’s 2025-2026 action reporting listed the action to progress the planning scheme amendment as in progress at 45 per cent, and recorded that on December 30, 2025 the City received advice that the Minister had decided to appoint an advisory committee to review settlement and bushfire risk in order to progress the amendment process (Source: Council Meeting Agenda - Monday February 16, 2026.pdf, p.210).

Analysis

Statutory Mechanism and Planning Effect

The amendment is expected to implement the MGS and the Housing and Neighbourhood Character Strategy through changes to planning policy, residential zones and overlays. The MGS implementation table specifically calls for introducing the Managed Growth Strategy and a revised Residential Framework Plan, including Huntly and Strathfieldsaye changes, into planning policy within the Greater Bendigo Planning Scheme (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.75). It also calls for a planning scheme amendment to apply the Neighbourhood Residential Zone, General Residential Zone and Residential Growth Zone based on the directions in the Housing and Neighbourhood Character Strategy (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.73).

The core mechanism is simple: the Residential Framework Plan assigns different expected levels of housing change, then the zones give those expectations statutory force. Minimal change areas are intended for limited housing change and are associated with the Neighbourhood Residential Zone at two storeys and up to 9 metres; Incremental Change A also uses the Neighbourhood Residential Zone; Incremental Change B uses the General Residential Zone at three storeys and up to 11 metres; and Substantial Change uses the Residential Growth Zone at four storeys and up to 13 metres (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.63-64).

The map logic follows access and constraint signals. Substantial change is directed to areas within 400 metres of large or specialised activity centres, around railway stations and along major transport corridors where restrictive overlays do not apply (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.64). Minimal change is applied where overlays or constraints reduce capacity, including Bushfire Management Overlay, Land Subject to Inundation Overlay, Significant Landscape Overlay, Buffer Area Overlay, Design and Development Overlays with minimum lot sizes, Heritage Overlay and Neighbourhood Character Overlay locations outside stronger accessibility contexts (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.64).

The amendment therefore does not only increase capacity. It also redistributes capacity. In places with good access to activity centres, transport corridors and stations, it supports more intensive housing. In places with bushfire, flooding, heritage, landscape, airport, landfill, wastewater, or neighbourhood character constraints, it signals that housing change should be lower even if residential zoning remains (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.63-66).

Housing Supply Arithmetic

The MGS uses a 2056 planning horizon because the state VIF and .id forecasts available to the City only extended to 2036, requiring the City to extrapolate longer-term scenarios (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.16). Under the central 1.6 per cent growth scenario, Greater Bendigo would grow from 121,200 people and 53,061 dwellings in 2021 to 211,243 people and 92,482 dwellings in 2056 (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.17). That implies roughly 39,421 additional dwellings over 35 years, broadly consistent with the strategy’s statement that around 38,000 additional dwellings and about 1,100 new dwellings per year are needed (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.22, 64).

The capacity headline is strong but misleading if treated as available supply. The Quantify housing capacity work identified theoretical capacity for 50,833 additional dwellings on already zoned residential land, including 36,348 in established areas, 6,696 in townships, 5,898 as infill within growth areas and 1,891 in greenfield growth areas (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.18). The mechanism problem is that capacity is not the same thing as supply: many lots will not redevelop, some land is constrained, ownership is fragmented, and different housing markets do not substitute cleanly for one another (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.18, 24).

The greenfield shortfall is the binding land-supply issue. Existing greenfield capacity in zoned growth areas was estimated at 172 hectares and 1,891 lots at 10-12 dwellings per hectare, made up of Huntly/Bagshot with 114 hectares and 1,254 lots, Marong with 19 hectares and 211 lots, Strathfieldsaye with 39 hectares and 426 lots, and no counted Maiden Gully greenfield capacity in that table (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.19). The strategy notes that Forest Edge Estate in Maiden Gully is expected to deliver 1,400 dwellings but was excluded from the Capacity Analysis because more than 10 per cent of the site is affected by the Bushfire Management Overlay (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.21-22).

The policy target changes the annual demand distribution. At the recent average of 940 building approvals per year, the current pattern would deliver about 419 greenfield dwellings, 150 rural dwellings and 371 infill dwellings per year (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.22). Under the MGS policy distribution at the same total approval level, annual greenfield demand would fall to 237 dwellings, rural demand would remain 150 dwellings, and infill demand would rise to 553 dwellings (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.23). Under the forecast-needs scenario of 1,100 dwellings per year, the MGS distribution implies 277 greenfield, 176 rural and 647 infill dwellings per year (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.23).

This means the amendment has two linked tasks. It must open more practical pathways for infill housing, otherwise the 70 per cent target will remain a paper target. It must also preserve a staged greenfield pipeline, because even the reduced 30 per cent greenfield share leaves only 12 years of zoned greenfield supply under the 1,100 dwelling-per-year scenario (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.23).

Infill, Character and Overlay Tension

The Housing and Neighbourhood Character component is central because Greater Bendigo’s existing housing stock is not aligned with household structure. The MGS records that 53 per cent of households had one or two people at the 2021 Census, rising to an expected 55 per cent by 2036, while more than three quarters of the housing stock had three or more bedrooms (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.17). Since 2011, 588 medium-density dwellings had been constructed compared with 9,900 stand-alone houses, with medium-density dwellings representing 8.7 per cent of total development (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.17).

The amendment tries to correct that mismatch by applying more permissive zones in well-serviced locations and removing some overlays where their original planning purpose is no longer justified. Appendix A identifies 196 properties where the Neighbourhood Character Overlay is recommended for removal, with seven of those already covered by a Heritage Overlay, and 289 properties where the Significant Landscape Overlay is recommended for removal (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.79-80). The planning logic is not wholesale deregulation: the MGS says the NCO should be removed from properties with an existing Heritage Overlay because both overlays should not apply to the same property, but also says a heritage study is still needed before NCO removal in some cases (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.35).

This creates an implementation risk. Removing an NCO may make redevelopment simpler, but if a heritage study later identifies heritage significance, the site may move from character control to heritage control rather than becoming unconstrained. The MGS itself anticipates this by noting that several NCO removals are linked to possible Heritage Overlay recommendations, including examples in Ironbark, Golden Square and Thistle Street (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.79).

Growth Area Sequencing

The MGS identifies Marong, Maiden Gully, Huntly and Strathfieldsaye as Greater Bendigo’s principal greenfield growth areas, but it does not treat them as equal in timing or constraint profile (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.38-43). Marong has 215 hectares designated as suitable for residential growth and an estimated 2,400 dwellings at 11 dwellings per net developable hectare, with implementation through Amendment C263gben and future privately led rezoning requests (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.38). Marong also has an employment relationship with the Bendigo Regional Employment Precinct, which the MGS says could support 6,000 direct and indirect jobs over the long term (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.38).

Maiden Gully is a supply priority but has stronger bushfire and native vegetation constraints. The MGS states that a new Maiden Gully Framework Plan is required to resolve the conflict between bushfire risk and vegetation protection, identify unsuitable areas, and prepare a new development contributions scheme for any proposed residential growth (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.39). This is a classic capacity-to-supply conversion problem: the area can contribute to housing, but the developable footprint depends on buffers, retained vegetation, access and emergency egress design (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.39).

Huntly is the immediate strategic expansion area because it combines lower comparative bushfire risk, a train station constructed in 2022, and a need to review the 2009 township plan (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.40-41). The MGS requires a Huntly drainage strategy, repair or replacement of critical sections of the Bendigo Creek earthen flood levee south of Leans Road, limits on further Midland Highway access points, cultural heritage assessment, and a structure plan that integrates the existing township with the expansion area (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.40).

Strathfieldsaye is deliberately later. The MGS says further growth south and east of the existing growth area should only be investigated after rezoning land in Marong, Maiden Gully and Huntly and after assessing whether Strathfieldsaye land is needed (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.42-43). Its constraints include waterways, vegetation, bushfire, flooding, servicing distance to the Bendigo Water Reclamation Plant, and existing farming and intensive animal industry enterprises (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.42).

Infrastructure Dependencies

The amendment depends on infrastructure systems that the planning scheme can influence but not fully control. The MGS states that infrastructure delivery in growth areas is estimated to cost between two and four times more than in established areas (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.56). This is the main financial reason the amendment favours infill around existing services rather than repeated outward Urban Growth Boundary expansion (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.4-5, 56).

Water and sewer are hard constraints. Coliban Water’s Urban Water Strategy provides a 50-year outlook, and the Bendigo Water Reclamation Plant at Epsom treats around 20 megalitres per day and is approaching capacity (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.56). A major upgrade to the Bendigo Water Reclamation Plant is in design, and Coliban Water is also investigating a possible second reclamation plant for urban Bendigo (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.56). The MGS also identifies water pressure issues in some Substantial Change Areas at higher elevations, where booster pumps may be needed at development stage (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.56).

Development contributions are necessary but incomplete. The MGS says growth-area structure plans can be accompanied by development contributions schemes to fund new or upgraded infrastructure, including local roads, intersections, drainage and community facilities (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.61). However, it also says contributions do not cover the full cost of delivery and do not cover ongoing maintenance, leaving a continuing budget exposure for the City (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.61).

Transport reinforces the infill logic. Greater Bendigo has eight railway stations, including Huntly, Goornong and Raywood stations added in 2022, and the strategy identifies Huntly station as creating substantial growth opportunities around that station (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.47). At the same time, private car reliance remains high, with seven in ten employed residents commuting by car despite more than 90 per cent of employed residents both living and working in Greater Bendigo (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.47). The amendment’s land-use settings will therefore only reduce road pressure if they are matched by practical walking, cycling and public transport improvements.

Hazard and Settlement Review

The Minister’s advisory committee decision is significant because it targets the two most sensitive parts of the amendment: settlement and bushfire risk (Source: Council Meeting Agenda - Monday February 16, 2026.pdf, p.210). The MGS acknowledges that Greater Bendigo is a city in a forest and that Clause 13.02 requires settlement planning to prioritise the protection of human life (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.27-28). It also records that the bushfire assessment compared 11 potential growth areas and found Huntly and Marong low risk overall, while Big Hill, Lockwood Road, Maiden Gully North-West, Maiden Gully South-East, Simpsons Road and Watson Street were inappropriate for residential rezoning because of landscape bushfire risk, access, vegetation, topography or the availability of lower-risk alternatives (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.28-29).

Flood risk is equally material. The MGS records that recent flooding in December 2023 and January 2024 affected Greater Bendigo, with Huntly, Goornong and Heathcote among the most affected local areas, and that earlier October 2022 floods caused widespread impacts (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.29). The Bendigo Urban Flood Study estimated 30,000 properties at risk of flooding, and the MGS says future structure plans and rezonings may need controls beyond the standard one per cent Annual Exceedance Probability design basis in some areas (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.29).

Current Status

The Managed Growth Strategy has been adopted, with the council website recording an adopted date of September 16, 2024 (Source: web-research-L0-managed-growth-strategy-council-page-a4165112f1.txt). The implementation planning scheme amendment remains in progress, with the engagement page identifying Ministerial authorisation and future public exhibition as the next statutory steps (Source: web-research-L0-managed-growth-strategy-engagement-and-background-reports-c960167c53.txt). As at the February 16, 2026 council agenda, the City reported 45 per cent progress on the action and recorded the Minister’s December 30, 2025 decision to appoint an advisory committee to review settlement and bushfire risk (Source: Council Meeting Agenda - Monday February 16, 2026.pdf, p.210).

Dependencies

  • Blocks: Final statutory weight for the revised Residential Framework Plan, residential zone changes, selected NCO and SLO removals, and the policy basis for later Huntly and Strathfieldsaye Urban Growth Boundary implementation depends on this amendment pathway (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.73-75).
  • Blocked by: Ministerial authorisation, advisory committee review of settlement and bushfire risk, exhibition, submissions, and final approval are still unresolved steps (Source: Council Meeting Agenda - Monday February 16, 2026.pdf, p.210; Source: web-research-L0-managed-growth-strategy-engagement-and-background-reports-c960167c53.txt).
  • Informed by: The MGS cites the Housing Capacity and Supply Analysis, Housing and Neighbourhood Character Strategy, bushfire assessments, agricultural suitability work, activity centre plans, structure plans, flood studies and infrastructure strategies as inputs to the framework (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.62, 70-78).
  • Implements: The amendment implements the adopted MGS, the Housing and Neighbourhood Character Strategy directions, and the policy objective of directing 70 per cent of urban residential growth to infill locations (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.5, 73-75).
  • Conflicts with: The main tensions are between housing supply and bushfire risk, infill growth and heritage or character controls, greenfield growth and infrastructure cost, and settlement expansion and agricultural or intensive animal industry buffers (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.29-31, 35, 56, 61, 65-66).

Coliban Water is a central implementation partner because water security, sewer capacity, Bendigo Water Reclamation Plant upgrades and possible future reclamation infrastructure affect both infill and greenfield housing capacity (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.56). State agencies are also implicated through Ministerial authorisation, the advisory committee process, education planning, public transport, freight corridor planning, emergency management and possible funding for infrastructure or contaminated land remediation (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.38, 47, 61, 73-76; Source: Council Meeting Agenda - Monday February 16, 2026.pdf, p.210).

The strategy also has regional settlement implications because Greater Bendigo is described as Victoria’s second-largest regional municipality and the engagement page says it must accommodate around 87,000 new residents by 2056 (Source: web-research-L0-managed-growth-strategy-engagement-and-background-reports-c960167c53.txt). The MGS records migration links from surrounding shires including Mount Alexander, Macedon Ranges and Swan Hill, meaning Bendigo’s housing capacity and affordability settings influence a wider Loddon Campaspe settlement system (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, p.16).

Gaps in This Analysis

The available source set is sufficient to explain the amendment mechanism and strategic rationale, but it is not sufficient for a full technical audit. The engagement page lists several background reports that are not included as extracted source documents here, including the full Housing and Neighbourhood Character Strategy, Managed Growth Strategy Engagement Results, Review of Neighbourhood Character and Significant Landscape Overlays, Housing Capacity and Supply Analysis, Bushfire Assessment of Potential Growth Areas, Bushfire Assessment October 2023, and ecological and bushfire risk assessment reports (Source: web-research-L0-managed-growth-strategy-engagement-and-background-reports-c960167c53.txt).

Because those reports are absent, this page cannot independently verify parcel-level zone changes, the full consultation issue count, the detailed bushfire methodology, ecological offsets, overlay mapping, or site-level housing capacity assumptions. The most important corpus gap is the full Housing and Neighbourhood Character Strategy, because the amendment is expected to apply residential zones and character changes based on that strategy rather than the MGS alone (Source: City-Greater-Bendigo-Attachment-Draft-Managed-Growth-Strategy.pdf, pp.62-65, 73).

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