title: Population & Housing Demand Analysis — Ballarat 2021–2041 council: ballarat state: vic category: strategy classification: MAJOR status: adopted last_compiled: 2026-04-13 source_docs:
- ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt
- ballarat-municipal-housing-capacity-assessment-tract-2022-extracted.txt
- housing-strategy-2041.txt
- ballarat-strategy-2040.txt
- growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt
Population & Housing Demand Analysis — Ballarat 2021–2041
This page synthesises the quantitative evidence base underpinning the housing-strategy-2041 and growth-areas-framework-plan. It draws primarily on the SGS Housing Needs Analysis (2023) and Tract Municipal Housing Capacity Assessment (2022), cross-referenced against the Victoria in Future (VIF) projections and observed building permit data. The central finding: Ballarat needs approximately 29,000 additional dwellings by 2041, but where those dwellings are built — and in what form — depends entirely on whether the 50:50 infill/greenfield aspiration is achieved.
Background
Ballarat’s population and housing projections have been modelled by multiple agencies across multiple timeframes, producing a complex landscape of numbers that are frequently cited without adequate context. The Ballarat Strategy 2040 (2015) projected a population of “over 160,000” by 2040. The Central Highlands Regional Growth Plan (2014) projected 130,000 by 2031. The SGS Housing Needs Analysis (2023) modelled three scenarios to 2041. The Housing Strategy 2041 adopted the high-growth scenario. The Draft Plan for Victoria set a target of 46,900 additional homes by 2051. These numbers are not interchangeable — they use different base years, growth assumptions, and geographic boundaries.
Analysis
Population Projection Scenarios
The SGS Housing Needs Analysis (2023) modelled three scenarios from a 2021 Census base of 113,482 residents:
| Scenario | Basis | 2041 Population | Growth | AAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | VIF19 rebased to 2021 Census | 156,905 | +43,423 (38%) | 1.6% |
| Moderate | Historical growth rates, Centre for Population commentary | 163,897 | +50,415 (44%) | 1.8% |
| High | Sustained peak COVID-era growth rate | 171,429 | +57,947 (51%) | 2.1% |
(Source: ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt)
The Housing Strategy 2041 adopted the high-growth scenario (2.1% AAGR, 171,429 by 2041). This is a consequential choice: the difference between the low and high scenarios is 14,524 people and 6,707 dwellings. The high-growth scenario assumes that peak COVID-era migration — driven by remote work, Melbourne housing affordability pressures, and lifestyle preferences — is sustained for 20 years. If growth reverts to pre-COVID trends, the low scenario is more likely, and Ballarat would need 22,254 dwellings rather than 28,961.
Population trajectory under adopted high-growth scenario (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Table 5):
| Year | Population |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 113,482 |
| 2026 | 128,810 |
| 2031 | 139,478 |
| 2036 | 154,630 |
| 2041 | 171,429 |
Cross-reference with earlier projections: The Ballarat Strategy 2040 (2015) projected “over 160,000” by 2040 from a 2014 base of approximately 100,000. The actual 2021 Census population of 113,482 suggests growth ran at approximately 1.8% AAGR from 2014 to 2021, slightly below the high-growth 2.1% assumption but above the moderate 1.8% scenario. (Source: ballarat-strategy-2040.txt)
Dwelling Demand Projections
Total dwelling demand across scenarios (Source: ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt):
| Scenario | Additional Dwellings | Total Stock (2041) | AAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 22,254 | 72,458 | 1.9% |
| Moderate | 25,483 | 75,687 | 2.1% |
| High (adopted) | 28,961 | 79,165 | 2.3% |
Dwelling demand grows faster than population because the average persons-per-household is projected to decline from 2.26 (2021) to 2.00 (2041). This is driven by an ageing population (lone-person households are the fastest-growing household type in absolute terms, adding 7,112–9,068 households by 2041) and declining household sizes among couple households. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt; ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt)
Dwelling demand by type (high-growth scenario, Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Table 7):
| Type | 2021 Stock | 2041 Stock | Additional | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Separate house | 42,262 | 65,087 | +22,825 | +54% |
| Attached dwelling | 6,335 | 11,509 | +5,174 | +82% |
| Flat/apartment | 1,409 | 2,332 | +923 | +66% |
| Other | 198 | 237 | +39 | +20% |
| Total | 50,204 | 79,165 | +28,961 | +58% |
The critical insight is the divergence between projected demand by type and stated policy aspiration. Demand modelling projects 79% of additional dwellings will be separate houses. But achieving the 50:50 infill/greenfield split and the Housing Strategy’s diversity objectives requires that 68% of new infill dwellings be attached houses or apartments. This is a structural mismatch between revealed preference (what the market builds) and planning policy (what the strategy seeks). The gap must be closed by planning controls, zone changes, and urban renewal precinct planning — none of which had been implemented as of early 2026. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
Household Formation Trends
The demographic shift driving housing demand is the growth in smaller households. By 2041, lone-person and couple-without-children households will account for 56% of all households (up from 54.4% in 2021), yet only 20% of existing dwellings have fewer than three bedrooms. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
Household projections by type (low scenario, Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Table 6):
| Type | 2021 | 2041 | Change | AAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone person | 14,018 | 21,130 | +7,112 | 2.1% |
| Couple without children | 11,872 | 17,481 | +5,609 | 2.0% |
| Couple with children | 11,763 | 15,629 | +3,866 | 1.4% |
| One parent family | 5,658 | 8,129 | +2,471 | 1.8% |
| Group household | 1,808 | 3,229 | +1,421 | 2.9% |
| Other | 2,471 | 3,359 | +888 | — |
| Total | 47,590 | 68,957 | +21,367 | 1.9% |
The fastest-growing household type is group households (2.9% AAGR), driven in part by housing affordability pressures. This signals latent demand for shared housing models and build-to-rent products not currently provided in Ballarat at any meaningful scale. (Source: ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt)
The Capacity Question — Can Supply Meet Demand?
The Tract Municipal Housing Capacity Assessment (2022) stress-tested whether the municipality has theoretical capacity to accommodate 28,961 additional dwellings under different policy settings.
Supply under current controls (without change areas) (Source: ballarat-municipal-housing-capacity-assessment-tract-2022-extracted.txt):
| Source | Dwelling Capacity |
|---|---|
| Established areas | 30,261 |
| Zoned greenfield | 16,200 |
| Total | 46,461 |
Supply with change areas applied (Source: ballarat-municipal-housing-capacity-assessment-tract-2022-extracted.txt):
| Source | Dwelling Capacity |
|---|---|
| Established areas | 31,250 |
| Zoned greenfield | 16,200 |
| Urban renewal | 8,643 |
| Total | 57,093 |
At face value, 57,093 exceeds 28,961 by a factor of two. But theoretical capacity and deliverable supply are different things. The capacity assessment excludes market absorption rates, developer willingness, infrastructure timing, heritage constraints on 12,000+ properties, and the political friction of upzoning established neighbourhoods. The real question is not whether there is enough zoned land, but whether the planning controls, infrastructure investment, and market conditions align to deliver the right housing in the right locations.
Zoned greenfield breakdown (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Table 9):
| Area | Dwelling Capacity |
|---|---|
| Ballarat West PSP | ~8,800 (at 15 lots/ha) |
| Alfredton West PSP | ~800 |
| Northern Growth Area (Core) | 6,600 |
| Total zoned | 16,200 |
Unzoned greenfield (future growth areas) (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Table 10):
| Area | Dwelling Capacity |
|---|---|
| Northern Growth Area (expanded) | 2,600 |
| Western Growth Area | 12,900–17,200 |
| North Western Growth Area | 7,200–9,600 |
| Total unzoned | 22,700–29,403 |
Urban renewal sites (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Table 11):
| Site | Potential Yield | Gross Area |
|---|---|---|
| CBD | 4,000 | — |
| Wendouree Station | 2,191 | 62.6 ha |
| Latrobe Street | 1,574 | 343.6 ha |
| Ballarat East/Eureka/Rodier St | 836 | 23.9 ha |
| Lal Lal Street | 28 | 0.8 ha |
| Skipton Street | 14 | 0.4 ha |
| Total | 8,643 |
Urban renewal yields assume a conservative density of 35 dwellings per gross hectare. The CBD could accommodate structures up to 8 storeys. Delivery of urban renewal sites requires structure planning (not yet commenced for any site), contamination remediation for industrial sites (Environmental Audit Overlay to be applied), and infrastructure augmentation. None of the six urban renewal areas had progressed beyond identification as of early 2026. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
The Infill/Greenfield Split — Target vs Reality
The most critical policy metric is the infill/greenfield split. Three documents set three different targets:
| Source | Target |
|---|---|
| Ballarat Strategy 2040 (2015) | 50% infill / 50% greenfield |
| Victoria’s Housing Statement (2023) | 70% infill / 30% greenfield (statewide) |
| Housing Strategy 2041 (2024) | Transition from current 70/30 greenfield/infill toward 50/50, with infill becoming dominant from 2031 |
Observed building permit data (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Table 8):
| Year | Total | Greenfield | Infill | Split |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1,017 | 610 | 407 | 60/40 |
| 2020 | 1,715 | 1,162 | 553 | 68/32 |
| 2021 | 2,013 | 1,426 | 587 | 71/29 |
| 2022 | 1,570 | 1,210 | 360 | 77/23 |
| 2023 | 1,087 | 775 | 312 | 71/29 |
| 2024 (Jan–Apr) | 339 | 230 | 109 | 68/32 |
| Total | 7,741 | 5,413 | 2,379 | 70/30 |
The trend is moving in the wrong direction. In 2019, infill captured 40% of permits. By 2022, it had fallen to 23%. The 5.5-year average is 70/30 greenfield/infill — the precise inverse of the state government’s aspiration. The Housing Strategy acknowledges this but expects infill to become dominant “from 2031 onwards” — a projection that depends on planning controls, zone changes, and urban renewal precinct planning that had not commenced as of early 2026.
The Tract capacity assessment tested three scenarios (Source: ballarat-municipal-housing-capacity-assessment-tract-2022-extracted.txt):
| Scenario | Greenfield share | Greenfield capacity | Years of supply |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% greenfield / 20% infill | 80% | 16,200 | 18 years (insufficient) |
| 50% greenfield / 50% infill | 50% | 16,200 | Sufficient |
| 30% greenfield / 70% infill | 30% | 16,200 | Sufficient |
At the current 70/30 greenfield/infill split, zoned greenfield capacity would be exhausted in approximately 18 years. The 50:50 target is not just an aspiration — it is a precondition for maintaining the 15-year land supply required by state planning policy, without which the pressure to rezone unzoned growth areas (Western and North Western) would accelerate. (Source: ballarat-municipal-housing-capacity-assessment-tract-2022-extracted.txt)
State Government Overlay — Plan for Victoria
The Draft Plan for Victoria sets a target of 46,900 additional homes in Ballarat by 2051 — a 30-year horizon. Victoria’s Housing Statement targets 800,000 dwellings statewide over the decade, with 425,600 homes in regional Victoria by 2051. These state-level targets exceed the Housing Strategy’s own projections (28,961 by 2041) but extend to a longer timeframe. The Housing Strategy positions itself as consistent with the state targets but notes the 50:50 split will not be achievable in the short term. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
Housing Preference Mismatch
The SGS household preferences survey (266 households, October–November 2022) reveals a structural tension between what households want and what policy seeks to deliver (Source: ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt):
- 50% of movers found it difficult to find an affordable home
- 79% preferred 3+ bedrooms; only 21% preferred 1–2 bedrooms
- 59% preferred an older established suburb; only 22% preferred a new modern suburb
- Only 8% would seek medium/high-density housing
- 48% said it was difficult to find a home with a large yard
- 28% stated they would likely move away from Ballarat
- 60% of those considering leaving felt there were few or no suitable homes in the LGA
This survey underscores the challenge: households overwhelmingly prefer separate houses with large yards in established suburbs — but the policy framework requires a shift toward attached dwellings and apartments in both infill and greenfield settings. The strategy depends on changing the housing product, not just the planning controls.
Current Status
The Housing Strategy 2041 was adopted in August 2024. No planning scheme amendment has been gazetted to implement it. The residential zones review, which would translate the change areas framework into binding planning controls, has not commenced. No urban renewal area structure plan has been initiated. The Growth Areas Framework Plan was adopted concurrently but PSP preparation for the Western and North Western growth areas has not commenced. The Northern PSP is being prepared by the VPA (appointed August 2022) but has not been exhibited. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt; growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt)
Dependencies
- Blocks: Residential zones review (which zones go where), urban renewal structure plans, growth area PSP preparation sequencing
- Blocked by: Planning scheme amendment to implement the Housing Strategy and Growth Areas Framework Plan (not yet commenced); Northern PSP completion (VPA-led); VPA Infrastructure Growth Alignment Framework (IGAF) sequencing advice (in progress, not released)
- Informed by: SGS Housing Needs Analysis 2023, Tract Housing Capacity Assessment 2022, SGS Infill Uptake Analysis 2024, Ballarat 11 Waterways Flood Modelling 2024
- Implements: ballarat-strategy-2040 50:50 target; Victoria’s Housing Statement; Plan for Victoria regional housing targets
- Conflicts with: Observed market preference for separate houses on large lots in greenfield areas, which if sustained will exhaust greenfield capacity and fail to achieve the infill target
Cross-Jurisdictional Links
- Golden Plains Shire — the Cambrian Hill residential proposal (3,000 lots) sits immediately south of Ballarat’s urban area in an adjacent municipality, potentially competing for the same housing market and undermining Ballarat’s infill aspirations by offering cheaper greenfield alternatives
- Central Highlands Water — servicing capacity for both greenfield and urban renewal sites is a binding constraint; the Housing Strategy flags potential constraints in the Bonshaw area of the Ballarat West PSP
- VPA — preparing both the Northern PSP and the IGAF, which will determine growth sequencing across all of Ballarat’s growth fronts
Gaps in This Analysis
- The SGS Housing Needs Analysis extracted text appears to be a condensed version; detailed affordability data (median prices, rent-to-income ratios, rental stress by suburb) likely exists in the full PDF but is not in the corpus
- The Ballarat Infill Prioritization Framework (Astrolabe, 2024) is referenced in the Housing Strategy but is not in the corpus — this document would detail how urban renewal areas were ranked
- No post-2024 building permit data is available to assess whether the infill share has improved since the Housing Strategy was adopted
- The VPA IGAF report, when released, will materially affect growth sequencing — its absence limits analysis of how the supply pipeline will be staged