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title: Infill Housing Framework — Change Areas, Urban Renewal & the 50:50 Target council: ballarat state: vic category: strategy classification: MAJOR status: adopted (strategy); not implemented (planning scheme) last_compiled: 2026-04-16 source_docs:

• housing-strategy-2041.txt
• ballarat-municipal-housing-capacity-assessment-tract-2022-extracted.txt
• ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt
• ballarat-infill-uptake-analysis-sgs-2024.txt
• neighbourhood-character-study.txt
• affordable-housing-position-statement-final-2022.txt
• social-and-affordable-housing-action-plan-july-2024.txt
• ballarat-strategy-2040.txt
• ballarat-west-growth-area-housing-and-growth-enabling-infrastructure-bnif.txt

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Infill Housing Framework — Change Areas, Urban Renewal & the 50:50 Target

The 50:50 infill/greenfield dwelling target — first set in the ballarat-strategy-2040 (July 2015) and reiterated in the housing-strategy-2041 (August 2024) — is the single most consequential residential planning policy in the City of Ballarat, because it determines the rate at which greenfield land is consumed, the timing of new PSPs, the municipality’s capital works profile, and the built-form trajectory of every established neighbourhood with an accessibility rating at or above 70%. After a decade of pursuing this target the revealed split has moved further from it: from 60/40 greenfield/infill in 2019 to an average of 70/30 across 2019–April 2024, peaking at 77/23 in 2022 and settling at 68/32 in the first four months of 2024. This page quantifies the mechanisms intended to close that gap, traces the dependency chain that blocks delivery, and identifies the specific structural features of the Ballarat housing market that make achievement of the target difficult on the trajectory assumed by the strategy. The stakes are material: under the Tract Municipal Housing Capacity Assessment (2022), if infill share stays at 20% (close to current performance), zoned greenfield land lasts only 18 years — below the 15-year minimum after ordinary approvals friction — forcing Council either to accept the infill target is aspirational and rezone additional greenfield, or to implement the regulatory, structure-planning and infrastructure programs needed to actually shift the split.

Background

The target’s origin — Ballarat Strategy 2040 (2015)

The 50:50 infill/greenfield target was not introduced by the 2024 Housing Strategy. It was adopted in the ballarat-strategy-2040 (Today, Tomorrow, Together: The Ballarat Strategy, adopted July 2015), which observed at the time of adoption that approximately 40% of new housing was occurring in established areas and sought to increase this to 50%. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt; affordable-housing-position-statement-final-2022.txt)

The 2015 Strategy supported infill development “in appropriate areas subject to character analysis, with further actions seeking the prevention of ad hoc greenfield residential development and advocating for the delivery of affordable housing. It identifies a target for future dwelling supply split 50/50 between established and greenfield areas.” (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt) The target therefore predates the 2024 Housing Strategy by nine years, and the 2024 Strategy inherits — rather than creates — the policy aspiration.

The intervening decade — what changed the conditions

Between 2015 and 2024 several factors materially altered the conditions under which the 50:50 target was operating:

• The Ballarat West PSP (adopted October 2016, after the 2015 Strategy) provided approximately 8,800 lots of statutory greenfield supply at 15 lots/ha maximum take-up, with infrastructure delivered via a DCP. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Table 9)
• The Alfredton West PSP (2011) was already operational and added approximately 800 lots. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
• The Northern Growth Area Core Area was identified for approximately 6,600 lots in the pipeline, though unzoned at that time. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
• VIF projections understated growth. The 2019 VIF projections used for early strategy drafting predated both the pandemic and the 2021 Census. The most recent VIF available during strategy preparation did not reflect post-COVID migration, living arrangement changes, or housing market behaviour. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
• The 2021 Census recorded 113,482 people living in 50,204 dwellings, with housing stock having grown by 14,049 dwellings between 2006 and 2021 at an average 2.1% per annum. (Source: ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt)
• Building permits peaked at 2,013 in 2021 with greenfield capturing 1,426 (71%) and infill 587 (29%) — the highest absolute volume but one of the most unbalanced greenfield-heavy years. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Table 8)
• Victoria’s Housing Statement (September 2023) committed the State to 70:30 infill/greenfield and introduced Amendments VC242 (Cl 53.22 / 53.23 — significant economic and residential development) and VC243 (Future Homes, permit exemption for single dwellings on lots ≥300sqm, VicSmart on smaller lots). These came into effect 20 September 2023. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt; neighbourhood-character-study.txt §2.3)
• The State’s draft Plan for Victoria housing target for Ballarat is 46,900 additional homes by 2051. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)

The 2024 Strategy’s operational translation

The Housing Strategy 2041 (August 2024) operationalises the target through a Housing Framework Plan that classifies all residential land into change areas and identifies six urban renewal sites with a combined theoretical yield of 8,643 dwellings at an assumed 35 dwellings per gross hectare. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Table 11)

The Strategy was prepared in accordance with Planning Practice Note 90 (Planning for Housing), which requires local councils to plan for at least 15 years of population growth and establish a Residential Development Framework (RDF). The RDF’s three components under PPN90 are: the Housing Strategy itself; the Neighbourhood Character Strategy; and the Residential Change Areas. PPN91 (Using Residential Zones) then governs how the change areas translate into zones (LDRZ / TZ / NRZ / GRZ / RGZ / MUZ). (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt §Policy Context; neighbourhood-character-study.txt §2.3)

Strategy preparation timeline (stage by stage)

The project proceeded over four stages (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Figure 1):

Stage	Activity	Period
1	Housing Discussion Paper + community consultation	2021
2	Draft Housing Strategy + Neighbourhood Character Study

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Analysis

1. The Change Areas Framework — what it is, and what it is not

The Housing Framework Plan classifies all residential land into five categories. The first three apply to existing residential zones; the fourth applies to former industrial or underutilised sites identified for comprehensive redevelopment; the fifth is defined by the companion growth-areas-framework-plan and is outside the scope of this Strategy. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt §Change Areas)

Substantial Change Areas — Allow housing growth and diversity at increased densities. Applied to:

• Areas that are very well-serviced by existing transport facilities (accessibility rating ≥70% per the Residential Accessibility Rating Analysis, Tract 2023);
• Areas identified for urban renewal in the Ballarat Planning Scheme;
• Underutilised industrial areas that have the potential to accommodate alternative uses, including housing, as identified in the Draft Industrial Land Strategy.

The planning objectives for Substantial Change Areas explicitly include “encourage the development of increased-density housing, particularly townhouses and apartments, to be defined through future structure planning” and “encourage a diversity of housing types, including smaller housing types (particularly one- and two-bedroom dwellings) and apartments with three or more bedrooms.” (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)

Incremental Change Areas — Allow modest housing growth while respecting existing character. Applied to residential land that is:

• High-accessibility (≥70%) but within a Heritage Overlay (HO), Design and Development Overlay (DDO), or sensitive neighbourhood character context; OR
• Not meeting the criteria for Substantial Change but not subject to the constraints that would warrant Minimal Change.

In practical terms this is the default classification — “residential land that is not either minimal or substantial change is identified as incremental change.” (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt) Built form is anticipated to be “a mixture of future housing in the form of detached houses, dual occupancies, townhouses and apartments. New housing will generally be up to two storeys, consistent with the preferred neighbourhood character of the area.” (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)

Minimal Change Areas — Protect existing low-density residential character. Applied to areas:

• Identified as bushfire landscape 3a (areas near forest hazards), 3b, or 4 (forest hazards) in the Strategic Planning for Bushfire in the City of Ballarat (Kevin Hazell Bushfire Planning, 2020);
• Where the cost of providing services to support growth is prohibitive;
• Identified for strategic reasons to maintain a compact form of urban development.

Built form is anticipated to be “predominantly comprised of one or two storey detached dwellings. Larger lots may be developed with more than two dwellings.” (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)

Urban Renewal Areas — Six sites identified with a combined theoretical yield of 8,643 dwellings at 35 dwellings per gross hectare, to be progressed through structure planning. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Table 11)

Growth Areas — Greenfield land governed by PSPs and the growth-areas-framework-plan, not within the scope of this Strategy.

Critical interpretation: The change areas framework as adopted is strategic intent, not a zone change. It is a layer above the existing residential zones (NRZ, GRZ, RGZ, LDRZ, TZ, MUZ) that will inform the forthcoming Residential Zones Review project. Until that review completes and a subsequent planning scheme amendment translates change areas into new zone schedules, the framework has no statutory force — individual permit applications in “Substantial Change” areas are still assessed under the existing GRZ or RGZ schedules. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt §Role of the Housing Strategy)

2. The accessibility rating methodology — mechanism and implications

The accessibility rating is the single most consequential technical input to the Change Areas framework. It is calculated via the Accessibility and Connectivity Analysis (Tract, 2023; referenced as Appendix 3 to the Strategy) and assesses the proximity of all areas in the City of Ballarat to ten destination types, each with a maximum walking catchment and a weighting. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Table 4)

Destination	Catchment	Weighting
Train statio

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Current Status

The Housing Framework Plan and change areas classification exist as strategic documents adopted by Council in August 2024. They have no statutory weight until implemented through a planning scheme amendment and residential zones review. As of 16 April 2026:

• No planning scheme amendment has been initiated to translate the Housing Strategy or the Growth Areas Framework Plan into the Ballarat Planning Scheme.
• No residential zone changes have been applied from the Change Areas framework.
• No urban renewal structure plans have commenced across any of the six sites, though the Wendouree Railway Station Masterplan (November 2022) and CBD Urban Design Framework exist as precursor documents requiring revision.
• The Astrolabe Infill Prioritization Framework exists but the site rankings have not been published.
• The 11 Waterways Flood Study (Water Technology, 2024) is complete but the associated flood overlays have not been implemented into the scheme.
• Building permit data continues to show approximately 70/30 greenfield/infill through the most recent data.
• The Integrated Transport Strategy update has not been finalised.
• The Residential Zones Review project has not commenced.
• The Diverse and Affordable Housing Strategy exists in draft (2024).
• The Heritage Gaps Analysis is in progress; outcomes may further constrain theoretical infill capacity.

Next Council action expected: Authorisation of the planning scheme amendment to implement the Housing Strategy and Growth Area Framework Plan. Without this step, all downstream work is blocked.

Dependencies

• Blocks:

  • Urban renewal delivery (no permits can issue without structure plans);
  • Residential zones review outcomes (cannot commence without adopted framework);
  • Growth area PSP timing (if infill doesn’t increase, greenfield PSPs must accelerate — North PSP, Western GA, NW GA);
  • Implementation of the new residential zone schedules reflecting Neighbourhood Character Study design guidelines;
  • Application of Environmental Audit Overlay to Urban Renewal Areas in Industrial Zones;
  • Implementation of the 11 Waterways Flood Study overlays.

• Blocked by:

  • Planning scheme amendment to implement Housing Strategy (not commenced);
  • Residential Zones Review project (not commenced);
  • Structure planning resources and funding for six Urban Renewal Areas;
  • Ballarat CBD Urban Design Framework and Structure Plan completion;
  • Integrated Transport Strategy completion;
  • Funded Infrastructure Plans development;
  • Heritage Gaps Analysis completion (to confirm stable HO footprint);
  • Ministerial approval for any proposed planning scheme amendments.

• Informed by:

  • ballarat-strategy-2040 (Initiative 3.1 — 50:50 target origin);
  • Tract Municipal Housing Capacity Assessment 2022;
  • SGS Housing Needs Analysis 2023;
  • SGS Infill Uptake Analysis 2024;
  • Tract Accessibility and Connectivity Analysis 2023;
  • neighbourhood-character-study (Ethos Urban 2024);
  • Ballarat Infill Prioritization Framework (Astrolabe 2024);
  • Ballarat 11 Waterways Flood Modelling (Water Technology 2024);
  • Strategic Planning for Bushfire in the City of Ballarat (Kevin Hazell Bushfire Planning 2020);
  • Urban Change Readiness Index (Studio THI 2022);
  • Wendouree Railway Station Masterplan (November 2022);
  • Bakery Hill Urban Renewal Plan (October 2019);
  • Draft Ballarat Industrial Land Strategy (May 2024);
  • Draft Ballarat Open Space Strategy (2024);
  • Ballarat Biodiversity Strategy – Healing Country Together (2024);
  • Draft Social and Affordable Housing Action Plan (2024);
  • Draft Ballarat Integrated Transport Action Plan (2020).

• Implements:

  • ballarat-strategy-2040 Initiative 3.1 (50:50 target);
  • Housing Strategy 2041 Outcomes 1–5;
  • Victoria’s Housing Statement 70:30 infill/greenfield aspiration;
  • Central Highlands Regional Growth Plan (2014) — Ballarat as regional city with growth through planned western development and infill opportunities;
  • Clause 11.01-1S Settlement, Clause 11.02-1S Supply of Urban Land, Clause 16.01-1S Housing Supply, Clause 16.01-2S Housing Affordability of the PPF;
  • Planning Practice Notes 43, 90, 91;
  • Planning and Environment Act 1987 Section 3AA (affordable housing definition) and the June 2018 objective to facilitate the provision of affordable housing in Victoria;
  • Amendments VC242, VC243, VC253 to all Victorian planning schemes.

• Conflicts with:

  • Current market dynamics (70/30 greenfield/infill);
  • Heritage protection objectives (12,000+ HO properties limiting Substantial Change geography);
  • Developer preference for greenfield delivery (lower risk, established product);
  • DTP Future Homes area constraints (HO exclusion limits Future Homes geography in inner Ballarat);
  • VC243 single-dwelling permit exemption (weakens Council’s character-conditioning lever in Incremental Change GRZ);
  • Cambrian Hill proposal in Golden Plains Shire (cross-boundary greenfield competition);
  • VPA’s confirmation of 20-year greenfield supply (reduces urgency to shift to infill).

Cross-Jurisdictional Links

• Golden Plains Shire (Cambrian Hill) — 3,000-lot greenfield proposal adjacent to Ballarat’s southern boundary directly competes with infill by offering cheap greenfield alternatives, potentially undermining the 50:50 target. See golden-plains-cambrian-hill.
• Moorabool Shire (Bacchus Marsh, Ballan) — regional greenfield absorption on Midland Highway corridor; cross-boundary spillover of commuter demand.
• Hepburn Shire (Daylesford) — tourism-driven regional housing pressure.
• Infrastructure Victoria — 2019 “Infrastructure Provision in Different Development Settings” research cited directly in Housing Strategy, underpinning the $59,000/dwelling compact-vs-dispersed cost differential.
• Department of Transport and Planning (DTP) — State planning reforms (VC242, VC243, VC253) provide enabling mechanisms; Minister’s approval required for all planning scheme amendments; DTP’s submission on train station accessibility weighting was a material consultation input.
• Central Highlands Water — sewerage augmentation for CBD and Wendouree Urban Renewal Areas is a binding dependency; Urban Renewal prioritisation inputs include CHW pipe capacity, treatment capacity, and equivalent tenements.
• Powercor / AusNet — electrical and gas capacity augmentation for higher density.
• Corangamite CMA / North Central CMA / Glenelg Hopkins CMA — partners for 11 Waterways Flood Study implementation.
• EPA Victoria — Ministerial Direction 1 application to Urban Renewal Areas in Industrial Zones.
• Victorian Planning Authority (VPA) — greenfield PSP authority; VPA confirmed “sufficient greenfield supply for almost 20 years” during Strategy consultation; VPA is concurrently preparing the ballarat-north-psp Affordable Housing Needs Assessment (July 2025) which will set greenfield affordable housing targets, creating a subsidy gradient against infill.
• Homes Victoria / Housing Australia — delivery partners for social and affordable housing; Housing Australia Future Fund and National Housing Accord collectively targeting 20,000 new social and 20,000 new affordable homes over five years.
• Federation University and Australian Catholic University (ACU) — tertiary education catchment feeding accessibility scoring (1,500m/66% weighting); campus expansion or contraction affects accessibility ratings in surrounding residential areas.
• Ballarat Base Hospital and St John of God Hospital — Health Precinct proximity contributes to accessibility scoring and designates the Hospital Precinct as a Substantial Change candidate under the Logic.

Gaps in This Analysis

• Ballarat Infill Prioritization Framework (Astrolabe, 2024) — referenced in the Housing Strategy but not in the corpus. Would detail: how the six urban renewal areas were ranked; criteria weightings; public finance requirement estimates per site; supply-side constraint assumptions. CRITICAL — without this document, the urban renewal delivery sequencing cannot be evaluated, and the 35 dw/ha yield assumption cannot be stress-tested against per-site constraint analysis.

• SGS Infill Uptake Analysis (2024) — Appendix 5 to the Housing Strategy. The corpus file labelled ballarat-infill-uptake-analysis-sgs-2024.txt is in fact a duplicate of the main Housing Strategy PDF text, not the standalone SGS appendix. The full SGS analysis would contain spatial capacity breakdowns by suburb, scenario-specific demand timing, and dwelling-typology assumptions by change area classification. IMPORTANT.

• Tract Municipal Housing Capacity Assessment 2022 (Appendix 4) — only the summary findings (Appendix 4 extract in Housing Strategy) are in corpus. The full Tract report would include: spatial distribution of the 30,261 established-area capacity; per-suburb capacity; methodology for excluding strata-titled lots (count of excluded lots); and the per-lot density assumptions by zone. IMPORTANT.

• Tract Accessibility and Connectivity Analysis 2023 (Appendix 3) — only referenced. Would contain the specific 70%+ accessibility geography maps by suburb, allowing direct identification of Substantial Change candidate parcels. IMPORTANT.

• Ballarat 11 Waterways Flood Modelling (Water Technology, 2024) — not in corpus. Would provide specific flood extents across the 11 waterways (Yarrowee, Winter Creek, etc.) and enable direct mapping of FO/LSIO footprints onto Urban Renewal and change area parcels. IMPORTANT.

• Urban Change Readiness Index (Studio THI, 2022) — Appendix 1 referenced. The summary headline findings are published in the Strategy; the detailed spatial and demographic breakdowns (e.g., support for substantial change by suburb) are not captured. USEFUL.

• Wendouree Railway Station Masterplan (November 2022) — referenced but not in corpus. Would specify the exact 62.6-ha sub-precincts, which industrial uses are targeted for transition, and the proposed land use mix within the precinct. IMPORTANT for Wendouree Station Urban Renewal Area delivery planning.

• Ballarat CBD Urban Design Framework and Structure Plan — referenced as in progress. Would specify the 4,000-dwelling CBD capacity distribution, heritage-sensitive height envelopes by sub-precinct, and flooding treatment along the Yarrowee corridor. CRITICAL for CBD delivery.

• Bakery Hill Urban Renewal Plan (October 2019) — referenced in Neighbourhood Character Study; not in corpus. Potentially overlaps with the CBD Urban Renewal Area. USEFUL.

• Draft Ballarat Industrial Land Strategy (May 2024) — not in corpus. Would specify which industrial sites have been identified as transitioning away from heavy industrial uses, and the buffer treatments required. IMPORTANT for Urban Renewal Areas 3 (Latrobe), 4 (Ballarat East/Rodier), and the Skipton/Lal Lal sites.

• Neighbourhood Character Study Precinct Profiles (beyond Bush Residential 1 and 2) — while the NCS is in corpus, only the first ~3,000 lines covering methodology, key issues, and the Bush Residential sub-types were read for this analysis. The remaining ~3,400 lines cover the Garden Court, Garden Residential, Lakeside Garden, Rural Residential, and Urban Core precinct profiles including design guidelines for Incremental and Substantial Change. IMPORTANT — each precinct profile contains binding design guidelines that will translate to zone schedule variations.

• Ballarat Biodiversity Strategy – Healing Country Together (2024) — referenced; not in corpus. Would specify priority biodiversity areas that may further constrain infill capacity in the eastern suburbs. USEFUL.

• Draft Ballarat Open Space Strategy (2024) — referenced; not in corpus. Would specify open space contribution rates, which directly affect infill project feasibility via developer contributions. USEFUL.

• Draft Ballarat Integrated Transport Action Plan (2020) and the forthcoming Integrated Transport Strategy — the 2020 plan predates the Housing Strategy; the updated strategy is not yet complete. Would specify bus route changes, active transport corridors, and intersection upgrades tied to Change Area geography. IMPORTANT.

• Post-adoption building permit data (2024 Q3 – 2026) — would indicate whether the strategy’s adoption has had any observable effect on the infill share. The Strategy’s Table 8 covers only to April 2024. IMPORTANT for evaluating the infill trajectory against the 2031 dominance expectation.

• Social and Affordable Housing Action Plan (July 2024) — in corpus. Not fully analysed in this page beyond the three-tier framework summary; the detailed per-action commitments and site audit methodology would inform affordable housing delivery feasibility in urban renewal. USEFUL — review needed.

• Diverse and Affordable Housing Discussion Paper (2023) — referenced; not in corpus. The basis for the Action Plan. USEFUL.

• Ballarat North PSP Affordable Housing Needs Assessment (VPA, July 2025) — in corpus. Sets the greenfield benchmark for affordable housing delivery; comparison to the infill approach (no numeric target) is a key cross-cutting analytical item. IMPORTANT cross-reference. See ballarat-north-psp.

• Ballarat West Growth Area Housing and Growth Enabling Infrastructure BNIF submission — in corpus but not fully analysed. Would provide the specific infrastructure funding gap for the Ballarat West PSP, which affects the realisability of the 8,800-lot greenfield supply assumed in the 18-year capacity calculation. USEFUL.

• VPA Small Lot Housing Code (November 2024) — in corpus but not analysed here. Sets design standards for small lots (typically <300 sqm), relevant to both Urban Renewal Area densities and greenfield lot yield. USEFUL.

• Developer sentiment and feasibility analysis — no formal developer survey or feasibility study for medium-density product in Ballarat’s established suburbs is in the corpus. The Stage 2 consultation received 27 developer-industry submissions, but these are not synthesised with per-site financial assumptions. IMPORTANT for understanding whether urban renewal delivery is actually commercially viable at the 35 dw/ha assumption.

• Specific heritage significance findings from the Heritage Gaps Analysis — in progress as of Strategy publication. Any new individually significant places added to the HO further reduce theoretical infill capacity from the 30,261 baseline. IMPORTANT.

• Central Highlands Water capital works program — referenced as a critical i

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Appendix A — Detailed Yield Sensitivity Analysis

A.1 Urban renewal yields at alternative densities

The Housing Strategy assumes a conservative 35 dw/ha gross density across urban renewal areas. The table below compares yield at three density assumptions that bracket plausible outcomes. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Table 11 for baseline)

Site	Gross area (ha)	35 dw/ha (adopted)	50 dw/ha (mid-rise)	70 dw/ha (metro mid-rise)	Delta vs adopted
CBD	~115 (implied)*	4,000	~5,750	~8,050	+44% / +101%
Wendouree Station	62.6	2,191	3,130	4,382	+43% / +100%
Latrobe Street	343.6	1,574**	2,249**	3,149**	+43% / +100%
Ballarat East/Eureka/Rodier	23.9	836	1,195	1,673	+43% / +100%
Lal Lal Street	0.8	28	40	56	+43% / +100%
Skipton Street	0.4	14	20	28	+43% / +100%
Total	—	8,643	12,384	17,338	+43% / +101%

*The CBD gross area is not published in the Strategy; the 4,000 yield at 35 dw/ha implies approximately 114 ha of redeveloped area. At 50 dw/ha this compresses to 80 ha; at 70 dw/ha to 57 ha.

**Latrobe Street uses the Strategy’s explicitly constrained yield assumption (~4.6 dw/ha of gross site), not 35 dw/ha. The densities above applied proportionally would give marginal upside — the binding constraint at Latrobe is not density but the developable footprint within the 343.6 ha.

Interpretation. A shift from 35 to 50 dw/ha increases urban renewal yield by approximately 3,700 dwellings — equivalent to adding a seventh major urban renewal site, without acquiring any additional land. A shift to 70 dw/ha adds approximately 8,700 dwellings, effectively doubling the capacity. This is the most significant lever available within the Strategy’s framework without expanding the urban renewal geography.

Constraints on realising the higher density.

• Market absorption. Ballarat apartment demand under baseline preferences is approximately 923 dwellings over 20 years. Even at 35 dw/ha the CBD yield of 4,000 exceeds 20 years of apartment demand. At 70 dw/ha the six sites together would exceed apartment demand by a factor of ~18. Realisation requires either a material preference shift or capture of non-local demand.
• Infrastructure. CHW, Powercor and AusNet augmentation costs scale with density. At 70 dw/ha the CBD would require major sewer and electrical capacity upgrades not currently programmed.
• Heritage. CBD heights above approximately 6 storeys conflict with the view corridors to the ridgeline from Soldiers Hill and adjoining streetscapes identified in the NCS. Heritage controls therefore cap CBD densities independently of market absorption.

A.2 Incremental change yield analysis

The 989-dwelling net increase from applying change areas to established-area capacity masks substantial internal redistribution. The Strategy does not publish the breakdown, but the Logic decision tree implies the following qualitative pattern:

• Substantial Change uplift: GRZ1 land near Wendouree Activity Centre (RGZ1 redesignated); a subset of GRZ land where accessibility ≥70% and no HO/BMO applies. Uplift expressed as increase in dw/ha allowable. Magnitude depends on the forthcoming residential zone schedule.
• Incremental Change uplift (modest): Most of the GRZ, RGZ1 near CBD, NRZ (non-bushfire). Design guidelines preserve character while allowing dual occupancies, townhouses and small apartments. Modest quantum per site but wide geography.
• Minimal Change downgrade: Bushfire landscape 3a/3b/4 (much of Brown Hill, Canadian, Mount Helen), plus low-accessibility areas (parts of Delacombe, Winter Valley, fringes of Alfredton West). Where current GRZ zoning theoretically permits higher densities but Minimal Change restricts to single-storey detached, capacity is reduced.
• Unchanged: Existing LDRZ (low-density residential zone) areas, Township Zone pockets (Cardigan, Cardigan Village, Learmonth).

The net +989 dwelling figure suggests the Substantial and Incremental uplift roughly equals the Minimal Change downgrade. Without the Astrolabe framework and the full Tract report, disaggregating the suburbs where uplift concentrates is not possible from the corpus.

A.3 Infill trajectory — backcast scenarios

Assume 2024 full-year dwelling permit data continues the January–April trend

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Appendix B — The Neighbourhood Character precinct profiles by change area

This Appendix summarises the interaction between the six Neighbourhood Character Types identified in the Neighbourhood Character Study (Ethos Urban, 2024) and the Change Areas framework. Each character type is assessed for the change areas it can contain and the key built-form implications. (Source: neighbourhood-character-study.txt §7.0 and §8.0)

B.1 Bush Residential 1 (BR1) — typically Minimal Change

Geography. Black Hill, Mount Pleasant, Nerrina, Brown Hill, Little Bendigo, fringes of Ballarat East, Canadian, Mount Helen. Located on sloping terrain at the edge of or within bushland; dwellings enclosed by bushland.

Change area compatibility. Primarily Minimal Change due to bushfire landscape classification and low accessibility. Incremental Change possible in pockets with adequate services.

Key built-form controls (Source: neighbourhood-character-study.txt §8.3):

• Side setback minimum 3m (Minimal) / 2m (Incremental)
• Upper levels above 2 storeys setback to achieve visual recession (Incremental)
• Indigenous canopy tree density: 1 per 100 sqm (Minimal) / 1 per 150 sqm (Incremental)
• Site coverage ≤40%; permeability ≥40%
• Front fencing set back from boundary for landscaping; absent/low/transparent fencing preferred; no more than 1.2m high if provided
• Buildings not to penetrate mature native tree canopy where canopy is present
• Buildings designed to follow topography; minimise cut and fill
• Muted colour palette (earthen, browns, greens, greys)

Planning implication. BR1 areas are inherently low-density — 40% site coverage with 40% permeability requirement caps effective density at approximately 10–15 dw/ha even under the most permissive interpretation. These areas cannot contribute materially to the 50:50 target.

B.2 Bush Residential 2 (BR2) — typically Incremental Change

Geography. Pockets of contemporary style in Black Hill, Ballarat North, Buninyong, Brown Hill; older post-war and modern on the ridge between Yarrowee and Canadian Creek.

Change area compatibility. Incremental Change is compatible. Minimal Change in bushfire-rated areas.

Key built-form controls:

• Front setbacks 3–10m; side setbacks 1–3m (varied)
• Lot sizes generally 700–1,000 sqm
• Site coverage 20–50%
• Single storey predominant with occasional double
• Dwellings enclosed by bushland; views within/over surrounding bushland at vantage points

Design guidelines for Incremental Change emphasise low-to-medium scale, natural materials, vegetation retention. Density uplift is modest.

B.3 Garden Court (GC1, GC2) — typically Incremental Change

Geography. Typical late 20th century estate typology. Modern and contemporary dwellings; single storey predominant; minimal front/side setbacks; low vegetation; absence of fencing; flat topography.

Change area compatibility. Garden Court areas are typically outer estate suburbs with lower accessibility (away from Ballarat CBD and Wendouree). Likely Incremental Change in serviced areas; Minimal in outer pockets.

Design guidelines accommodate uplift to medium scale with infill townhouses; however, the absence of established vegetation and fencing means the character is more contemporary and accommodating of change than the Garden Residential or Urban Core types.

B.4 Garden Residential — Incremental to Substantial Change candidate

Geography. The dominant inter-war/post-war established suburban typology — typically Ballarat North, parts of Redan, Sebastopol (Albert Street), Invermay Park, Newington. Tree-lined streets with mature canopy; formal and informal gardens; Interwar and Post-war architectural styles.

Change area compatibility. The most contested category. Many Garden Residential areas have high accessibility ratings (≥70%) but also fall within Heritage Overlays — pushing them to Incremental Change via the Logic test. Non-HO Garden Residential areas with high accessibility can be Substantial Change.

Key built-form tensions:

• Retaining mature canopy trees conflicts with increased site coverage;
• Character controls on fencing and setbacks conflict with apartment/townhouse product;
• The permit exemption (VC243) for single dwellings on ≥300 sqm lots removes Council’s ability to condition single-dwelling design in these areas.

B.5 Lakeside Garden — Incremental Change (heritage-contested)

Geography. Around Lake Wendouree. Mix of singl

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Appendix C — Comparison with other Victorian regional cities

The 50:50 target is broadly consistent with other large Victorian regional cities pursuing compact-city objectives under Plan for Victoria. Without published comparative data in the corpus, a full benchmark is not possible; the following is indicative based on public-sector planning practice:

• Greater Geelong — Settlement Strategy identifies infill targets and major urban renewal precincts (Central Geelong, Armstrong Creek interface). Geelong has stronger apartment market (G21 catchment, Deakin University, larger population base).
• Greater Bendigo — Similar regional city, similar heritage challenges, comparable 50:50-type aspirations. Bendigo’s infill trajectory is instructive for Ballarat — see bendigo-housing-strategy.
• City of Wodonga (Albury-Wodonga) — Different border-city dynamic; cross-border housing market with Albury NSW.
• Latrobe City (Traralgon, Morwell, Moe) — Regional city with industrial transition legacy (similar to Ballarat’s heavy-industrial past).
• Shepparton — Smaller LGA with greenfield dominance.

The distinctive Ballarat factors are:

• Unusually large HO footprint (12,000+ properties) — larger than most regional peers relative to residential stock;
• Extensive BMO coverage on the eastern side — limits eastern expansion and caps eastern infill;
• Multiple unzoned greenfield reserves (22,700–29,403 dwellings) — substantial land-use optionality relative to demand;
• Strong commuter catchment to Melbourne (105+ minute train connection) — apartment demand partly driven by Melbourne downsizers seeking regional lifestyle with rail access;
• Federation University, ACU, and rural clinical schools for Deakin and Melbourne Universities — student demand component for smaller dwellings.

Appendix D — The Housing Strategy’s five outcomes and associated measurement framework

The Strategy identifies five outcomes with associated actions (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt §Implementation):

Outcome 1 — Ballarat has sufficient housing supply to support population growth.

• Measurement: VIF vs UDP (Urban Development Program) monitoring; building permit data annually.
• Target: 28,961 additional dwellings to 2041 under high growth (2.1% AAGR).
• Leading indicator: Planning scheme amendments progressed; PSP and structure plan progression rates.

Outcome 2 — Ballarat’s infrastructure supports higher density housing.

• Measurement: Infrastructure Plans in place, funded, and being delivered.
• Target: Integrated Transport Strategy completed; Urban Renewal Area prioritisation complete; Funded Infrastructure Plans in place.
• Leading indicator: CHW capital works program aligned with Housing Strategy; CBD Urban Design Framework progress.

Outcome 3 — Ballarat provides housing choice in locations close to schools, jobs, transport and services.

• Measurement: Infill vs greenfield split; provision of 1-, 2-, and 3-bedroom dwellings in developments of 10+.
• Target: Progression towards 50:50 from 70:30.
• Leading indicator: Residential Zones Review progress; Urban Renewal structure plans; diverse housing typology monitoring.

Outcome 4 — Ballarat is distinctive for heritage, character and design.

• Measurement: HO footprint (Heritage Gaps Analysis outcomes); urban renewal precinct plan quality.
• Target: Preservation of HO-covered character precincts; integration of character guidelines into zone schedules.
• Leading indicator: Neighbourhood Character Guidelines developed; new residential planning controls aligned to NCS; VCAT outcomes under new controls.

Outcome 5 — Ballarat is a resilient city.

• Measurement: Flood overlay implementation; EAO application; bushfire risk-based change area classification.
• Target: 11 Waterways flood overlays in scheme; EAO applied to all URA industrial parcels; Minimal Change sustained in bushfire landscape 3a/3b/4.
• Leading indicator: Planning scheme amendments for flood overlays; Heritage Gaps Analysis outcomes integrated.

The Strategy’s Outcome 1 is measured ongoing via building permit data — which means the primary 50:50 metric is observable now (70/30 currently) and will continue to be observed. This creates a clear accountability loop between the stated aspirational target and the revealed market outcome.

Appendix E — Relationship to the Central Highlands Regional Growth Plan (2014)

The Central Highlands Regional Growth Plan (CHRGP, 2014) provided the regional context within which the Housing Strategy sits. Key integration points (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt §Policy Context):

• Ballarat as sole regional city in Central Highlands. Rigorous regional housing burden placed on Ballarat LGA.
• 2014 CHRGP projections. Ballarat population 113,500 in 2021 and 130,000 in 2031. The 2021 Census confirmed 113,482 (very close to forecast) but the Housing Strategy’s high-growth scenario projects 139,478 in 2031 — approximately 10,000 above the CHRGP projection, reflecting post-COVID acceleration.
• CHRGP future directions:
  • Support development and investment consistent with Ballarat’s role as a regional city;
  • Facilitate growth of the city, particularly through planned development to the west and through infill opportunities (the CHRGP text explicitly paired western greenfield and infill as dual mechanisms);
  • Encourage CBD as higher-order activity centre with major employment, cultural, service and retail attractors;
  • Provide appropriate social, physical and transport infrastructure to support growth;
  • Encourage regionally significant services easily accessible to the region;
  • Population growth planned in sustainable locations throughout region;
  • Sustainable and vibrant communities supported by enhanced access to key services;
  • Land use patterns, development and infrastructure to make the region more self-reliant and sustainable;
  • Planning for growth integrated with infrastructure provision;
  • Land, soil, water and biodiversity managed and enhanced;
  • Cultural heritage and landscapes recognised as economic and community assets.

The CHRGP is a high-level document; the Housing Strategy is the Ballarat-specific translation. The 50:50 target is consistent with the CHRGP direction but not required by it — the CHRGP speaks of “infill opportunities” as a mechanism without setting a numeric target.

Implication. If the 50:50 target is not achieved, the Strategy remains consistent with regional policy. This reduces the external pressure on Council to achieve the target, which in turn relies on internal Council commitment and state (DTP, VPA) support.

Appendix F — Implementation risk matrix

The following matrix identifies the critical risks to successful implementation of the Change Areas framework. Each risk is rated for likelihood and impact on the 50:50 target.

#	Risk	Likelihood (early 2026)	Impact on 50:50	Mitigation
1	Planning scheme amendment not authorised within 12 months	Moderate	High	Council resolution, ministerial engagement
2	Residential Zones Review scope too narrow to unlock Substantial Change	Moderate	High	Broad review including character schedule variations
3	Urban Renewal Areas fail to progress through structure planning (resource constraint)	High	High	Dedicated structure planning budget; Astrolabe prioritisation
4	CHW sewerage augmentation not programmed in time for urban renewal delivery	Moderate	High	Cross-jurisdictional engagement; inclusion in CHW capital works
5	CBD apartment absorption below projections	High	Moderate	Marketing; affordable housing component to broaden demand base
6	VC243 single-dwelling exemption weakens character outcomes in Incremental Change areas	High	Moderate	Schedule variations seeking ministerial concurrence for character retention
7	Heritage Gaps Analysis adds substantially to HO footprint	Moderate	Moderate	Integration with Housing Strategy capacity reassessment
8	Flood Overlays from 11 Waterways Study materially reduce urban renewal area	Moderate	Moderate	Engineering mitigation; design response in structure planning
9	Cambrian Hill greenfield proposal undermines infill through cross-border competition	High	Moderate	Advocacy to Minister; regional coordination
10	Developer industry does not shift towards medium-density product	High	High	Inclusionary zoning; affordable housing pipeline; facilitated approvals
11	Integrated Transport Strategy not finalised or funded	Moderate	High	DTP engagement; clear capital works linkage to Change Areas
12	Market preferences continue to favour detached dwellings	High	High	State demand-side policies; dwelling-size mandates via zone schedules
13	Community opposition to specific substantial change designations	Moderate	Moderate	Robust consultation; precinct-level structure plans
14	Astrolabe prioritisation rankings not published or contested	Low	Moderate	Transparency; MCA methodology disclosure

Aggregate risk profile. Six high-impact risks are rated “High” or “Moderate-to-High” likelihood. The cumulative probability that all 14 risks are successfully mitigated is low, suggesting the 50:50 target should be treated as a stretch aspiration rather than a plan of record. A baseline Scenario A (status quo 70/30) is more likely than Scenario B (target met by 2031).

Policy implication. If the 50:50 target is treated as aspirational, Council must concurrently plan for the unzoned greenfield release that would be needed to maintain 15-year supply under Scenario A. This creates a policy tension: over-committing to the infill target may starve Council of the greenfield pipeline needed if infill fails to materialise, while over-committing to greenfield preparation undermines the infill policy signal. The Growth Areas Framework Plan (companion document) attempts to resolve this by staging greenfield releases.

Appendix G — Signal and timeline tracking

Key dates and milestones for future monitoring (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt; neighbourhood-character-study.txt; various):

Date	Event	Source
2015-07	Ballarat Strategy 2040 adopted with 50:50 target	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2011	Alfredton West PSP adopted	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2014	Central Highlands Regional Growth Plan	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2016-10	Ballarat West PSP adopted	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2018	Ballarat Long Term Growth Options Investigation (Hansen, Arup, Tim Nott)	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2019-10	Bakery Hill Urban Renewal Plan	neighbourhood-character-study.txt
2020	Strategic Planning for Bushfire in the City of Ballarat (Kevin Hazell)	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2020	NCS Stage 1 community consultation	neighbourhood-character-study.txt
2021	Housing Discussion Paper + community consultation (Stage 1)	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2021	Census recorded 113,482 population, 50,204 dwellings	ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt
2022-02	Council resolves to adopt three growth areas (Northern, Western, North-Western)	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2022-08	Affordable Housing Position Statement	affordable-housing-position-statement-final-2022.txt
2022	Tract Municipal Housing Capacity Assessment	ballarat-municipal-housing-capacity-assessment-tract-2022-extracted.txt
2022	Urban Change Readiness Index Survey (Studio THI)	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2022-11	Wendouree Railway Station Masterplan adopted	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2023-06	SGS Housing Needs Analysis	ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt
2023-08-10	Draft Housing Strategy consultation commences	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2023-08-26	Developer forum 1	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2023-09-05 to 26	Community engagement drop-in sessions	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2023-09-20	Amendment VC242 and VC243 gazetted	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2023-09-20	Developer forum 2	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2023-10	Draft Housing Strategy consultation concludes (Stage 3 NCS consultation)	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2024	Ballarat Infill Prioritization Framework (Astrolabe)	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2024	Ballarat Infill Uptake Analysis (SGS)	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2024	Ballarat 11 Waterways Flood Modelling (Water Technology)	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2024	Ballarat Growth Areas Framework Plan	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2024-05	Draft Ballarat Industrial Land Strategy	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2024-07	Draft Social and Affordable Housing Action Plan	social-and-affordable-housing-action-plan-july-2024.txt
2024-08	Neighbourhood Character Study adopted	neighbourhood-character-study.txt
2024-08	Housing Strategy 2041 adopted	housing-strategy-2041.txt
2025-07	VPA Ballarat North PSP Affordable Housing Needs Assessment	vpa-ballarat-north-psp-affordable-housing-needs-assessment-vpa-july-2025.txt
Early 2026	Strategy 18 months post-adoption; Immediate implementation actions not commenced	(inferred from current date)

Next milestones to watch:

• Council authorisation of planning scheme amendment to implement Housing Strategy and Growth Area Framework Plan (should have been commenced Immediately; now 18+ months overdue).
• Publication of Astrolabe Urban Renewal prioritisation rankings.
• Commencement of Residential Zones Review.
• CBD Urban Design Framework completion.
• Integrated Transport Strategy release.
• 11 Waterways flood overlay implementation.

See _current for the live dashboard of implementation status.

Size Contract Note

This page was compacted for UI and Obsidian readability. The underlying source documents and extracted text remain in the evidence corpus.