title: Ballarat Housing Strategy 2041 council: ballarat state: vic category: strategy classification: MAJOR status: adopted last_compiled: 2026-04-17 source_docs:
- housing-strategy-2041.txt
- ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt
- ballarat-municipal-housing-capacity-assessment-tract-2022-extracted.txt
- ballarat-infill-uptake-analysis-sgs-2024.txt
- social-and-affordable-housing-action-plan_july-2024.txt
- affordable-housing-position-statement-final-2022.txt
- vpa-ballarat-north-psp-affordable-housing-needs-assessment-vpa-july-2025.txt
- neighbourhood-character-study.txt
Ballarat Housing Strategy 2041
The Housing Strategy 2041 is the most consequential planning document the City of Ballarat has adopted in the current policy cycle. It commits the municipality to absorbing approximately 55,000 additional people and 28,961 additional dwellings by 2041 — and to doing so through a fundamental shift in development geography, moving from a 70/30 greenfield-dominant pattern to an aspirational 60/40 (and ultimately 50/50) infill/greenfield split. The Strategy was adopted in August 2024 but none of its statutory implementation mechanisms — the residential zones review, the planning scheme amendment, or the urban renewal structure plans — have commenced. The gap between the Strategy’s ambition and its implementation is the defining tension in Ballarat’s planning system. The State Government’s draft Plan for Victoria target of 46,900 additional homes by 2051 further raises the stakes: Ballarat must not only deliver on its own 29,000-dwelling target to 2041 but plan for a further ~18,000 dwellings in the decade beyond, which the Strategy does not address. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
Background
Strategic Context and Policy Predecessor
Ballarat has lacked a comprehensive housing strategy aligned with state policy. The predecessor document — Today, Tomorrow, Together: The Ballarat Strategy 2040 (adopted 2015) — set an aspirational 50/50 infill/greenfield target but provided no analytical basis for it and no implementation pathway. Building permit data from 2019–2024 shows the target was never approached: greenfield development consistently accounted for 68–77% of new dwellings, averaging 70% across the period. The 2015 Strategy’s 50/50 target existed as a policy statement disconnected from planning scheme controls, market mechanisms, or infrastructure investment — an aspiration without teeth. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Table 8)
The City of Ballarat recognised this gap explicitly: “Ballarat does not have a comprehensive housing strategy prepared in alignment with State Government policy.” The Housing Strategy 2041 was developed over four stages from 2021 to 2024 to fill this void, prepared in accordance with Planning Practice Note 90 (PPN90) — the state’s principal guidance for local housing strategies. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
Development Timeline
The Strategy was prepared through four distinct stages, each reflecting a broadening evidence base and evolving community engagement:
- Stage 1 (2021): Housing Discussion Paper and Community Consultation — established the evidence base and identified key issues through a discussion paper distributed via MySay portal, online survey, in-person drop-in sessions, and agency consultation with DTP and Central Highlands Water. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
- Stage 2 (April 2022 – August 2023): Draft Housing Strategy, Neighbourhood Character Study and Supporting Material — this stage produced the bulk of the technical studies including the SGS Housing Needs Analysis (June 2023), Tract Municipal Housing Capacity Assessment (2022), and the Accessibility and Connectivity Analysis (Tract, 2023). (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
- Stage 3 (August – October 2023): Consultation on the Draft Housing Strategy and Neighbourhood Character Study — comprised nine community engagement drop-in sessions between 5 September and 26 September 2023, two developer forums (26 August and 20 September 2023), an online survey via MySay, and direct agency consultation with EPA, DTP, and CHW. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
- Stage 4 (November 2023 – June 2024): Preparation of final Housing Strategy — incorporating consultation feedback and additional studies including the Ballarat 11 Waterways Flood Modelling (Water Technology, 2024), the Ballarat Infill Prioritisation Framework (Astrolabe, 2024), the SGS Infill Uptake Analysis (2024), and the Neighbourhood Character Study (Ethos Urban, August 2024). (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
The Strategy was adopted by Council in August 2024. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
Supporting Technical Studies
The Strategy is informed by an unusually comprehensive suite of technical studies — twelve documents that collectively represent one of the most thoroughly analysed housing strategies prepared by a regional Victorian council:
- City of Ballarat Neighbourhood Character Study (Ethos Urban, August 2024) — ten character area classifications, preferred character statements, design guidelines
- Ballarat’s Future Housing 2021–2041: Housing Needs Analysis (SGS Economics, June 2023) — population projections, dwelling demand modelling, housing preference scenarios
- Ballarat Municipal Housing Capacity Assessment (Tract, 2022) — supply-side analysis of established area and greenfield capacity
- Accessibility and Connectivity Analysis (Tract, 2023/2024) — proximity-weighted catchment analysis of all residential land
- Strategic Planning for Bushfire in the City of Ballarat (Kevin Hazell Bushfire Planning, 2020) — landscape classification informing minimal change areas
- Urban Change Readiness Index Survey (Studio THI, 2022) — community attitudes toward urban change
- Ballarat 11 Waterways Flood Modelling (Water Technology, 2024) — updated flood mapping under climate change scenarios
- Ballarat Growth Areas Framework Plan (City of Ballarat, 2024) — companion document for Western and Northwestern growth areas
- Draft Industrial Land Strategy (City of Ballarat, 2024) — identifies urban renewal potential on industrial sites
- **Ballarat
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Analysis
1. Population Projections and Dwelling Demand
The Three Scenarios
The Strategy’s demand analysis relies on the SGS Economics Housing Needs Analysis (June 2023), which modelled three population scenarios from a 2021 Census base of 113,482 people and 50,204 dwellings. Rather than relying on VIF modelling (which predated the pandemic and the 2021 Census), the City of Ballarat procured an independent analysis using a refined Housing Demand Model:
| Scenario | 2041 Population | Growth | AAGR | Additional Dwellings | Dwellings AAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 156,905 | +43,423 (38%) | 1.6% | 22,254 | 1.9% |
| Moderate | 163,897 | +50,415 (44%) | 1.8% | 25,483 | 2.1% |
| High (adopted) | 171,429 | +57,947 (51%) | 2.1% | 28,961 | 2.3% |
(Source: ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt)
The low scenario rebases VIF19 projections to the 2021 Census. The moderate scenario is based on historical growth rates adjusted for Centre for Population commentary. The high scenario assumes sustained peak COVID-era migration rates — growth experienced in 2021/22 continuing to 2041. (Source: ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt)
The Strategy adopts the high growth scenario as its planning basis, reasoning that planning for the upper bound “reduces the risk of decision makers under forecasting housing needs.” This is a defensible but consequential choice: it requires planning for 6,707 more dwellings than the moderate scenario (a 26% uplift) and 30% more than the low scenario. Choosing the high scenario also aligns more closely with observed growth: housing stock grew by 14,049 dwellings between 2006 and 2021 at 2.2% per annum — consistent with the high-growth trajectory. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt; ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt)
Population Trajectory Under High Growth
Under the adopted high scenario, Ballarat’s population trajectory is:
| Year | Population | 5-year Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 113,482 | — |
| 2026 | 128,810 | +15,328 |
| 2031 | 139,478 | +10,668 |
| 2036 | 154,630 | +15,152 |
| 2041 | 171,429 | +16,799 |
Total change: +57,947 (51%), Average Annual Growth Rate: 2.1%. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Table 5)
Dwelling Demand by Type
The 28,961-dwelling requirement breaks down by type and time period as follows:
| Dwelling Type | 2021 Stock | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | Additional | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Separate house | 42,262 | 47,518 | 52,753 | 58,712 | 65,087 | 22,825 | +54% |
| Attached dwelling | 6,335 | 7,488 | 8,667 | 10,024 | 11,509 | 5,174 | +82% |
| Flat/apartment | 1,409 | 1,619 | 1,824 | 2,053 | 2,332 | 923 | +66% |
| Other | 198 | 207 | 210 | 210 | 237 | 39 | +20% |
| Total | 50,204 | 56,833 | 63,454 | 71,000 | 79,165 | 28,961 | +58% |
(Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Table 7)
Separate houses will remain 78–79% of additional demand. Non-separate housing increases from 15.8% to 17.8% of total stock — a modest shift that reflects revealed market preferences, not the policy aspiration. The critical analytical point is that even under the most aggressive policy scenario (S3, 50/50 infill/greenfield), separate houses still constitute 67% of new dwellings. Ballarat is not becoming an apartment city under any plausible scenario. The Strategy must work within this market reality while attempting to shift it at the margins. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt; ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt)
Dwelling Size Distribution
The 2021 Census reveals a dwelling stock dominated by larger homes:
| Size | Share of Stock (2021) |
|---|---|
| 1 bedroom | 3.4% |
| 2 bedrooms | 16.0% |
| 3 bedrooms | 47.8% |
| 4 bedrooms | 28.8% |
| 5+ bedrooms | 3.8% |
Only 20% of dwellings have fewer than 3 bedrooms — yet 29.5% of households are single persons and 24.9% are couples without children. The mismatch between dwelling size and household size is stark and worsening. (Source: ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt; housing-strategy-2041.txt)
2. Household Formation Dynamics
Household formation patterns are the critical demand-side driver that the Strategy mu
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Current Status
Adopted (August 2024). No implementation steps have commenced as of April 2026. The full list of outstanding actions:
| Implementation Step | Strategy Timing | Actual Status |
|---|---|---|
| Planning scheme amendment (Housing Strategy + GAFP) | Immediate | Not commenced |
| Residential zones review | Immediate | Not commenced |
| Zone application amendment | Following review | Not commenced |
| Urban renewal structure plans (6 precincts) | Short term (1–5 years) | Not commenced |
| CBD Structure Plan | Immediate/Short term | Draft UDF (2021) likely superseded; new suite “beginning late 2025” |
| Integrated Transport Strategy | Short term | Under preparation |
| Diverse and Affordable Housing Strategy | Immediate/Short term | Action Plan adopted July 2024; no mandatory mechanisms |
| Urban Renewal Prioritisation (Astrolabe MCA) | Short term | Framework prepared (2024); prioritisation outcomes unknown |
| 11 Waterways Flood Overlay Amendment (C217ball) | Immediate | Sought December 2025; status unknown |
| Heritage Gaps Analysis | Short term/Ongoing | Under way |
| NCS residential controls amendment | Immediate/Short term | Not commenced |
The Strategy also identifies that “Ballarat will provide for housing diversity in new development including the provision of 1, 2 and 3 bedroom apartments and townhouses for 10 or more dwellings” — classified as “Ongoing” in the Implementation Plan. This is the closest the Strategy comes to a mandatory diversity requirement, but without embedding it in a zone schedule or local policy, it remains a guideline that decision-makers may apply or disregard at their discretion. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
The additional companion strategies and investigations identified in the Implementation Plan include:
- Ballarat Open Space Strategy (2024) — under preparation; will guide improvement, acquisition and development of open spaces; will set development contribution expectations; replaces the 2008 strategy
- Ballarat Biodiversity Strategy — Healing Country Together (2024) — four action groups addressing immediate biodiversity actions, raising nature values, targeted gains, and landscape-scale restoration
- Ballarat Integrated Transport and Land Use Strategy Action Plan — being updated in line with the Housing Strategy findings
- Draft Industrial Land Strategy (2024) — identifies future industrial areas and sites transitioning from heavy industrial use, informing the urban renewal supply
- Community Infrastructure Plan — to support housing growth alongside the Housing Strategy
(Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
The gap between “adopted” and “implemented” is approximately 20 months and counting. Every month of delay perpetuates the 70/30 greenfield-dominant development pattern that the Strategy was designed to change, while reducing the time available to achieve the 2031 infill-dominant tipping point that the Strategy projects.
Dependencies
- Blocks: Residential Zones Review (cannot proceed without adopted Housing Strategy — now cleared); urban renewal structure plans; application of Change Areas in the planning scheme; NCS design guidelines in zone schedules; CBD Structure Plan
- Blocked by: Planning scheme amendment process (requires Ministerial authorisation); heritage overlay constraints on inner-suburb densification; market appetite for medium-density typologies; State legislative reform for inclusionary zoning; contamination remediation on urban renewal sites; CHW infrastructure servicing capacity; Flood Overlay update (C217ball)
- Informed by: SGS Housing Needs Analysis (2023); Tract Municipal Housing Capacity Assessment (2022); SGS Infill Uptake Analysis (2024); Ethos Urban Neighbourhood Character Study (2024); Kevin Hazell Bushfire Assessment (2020); Water Technology 11 Waterways Flood Modelling (2024); Astrolabe Infill Prioritisation Framework (2024); Tract Accessibility and Connectivity Analysis (2023/2024); Studio THI Urban Change Readiness Index (2022)
- Implements: ballarat-strategy-2040 (50/50 target); Victoria’s Housing Statement (2023); PPN90; PPN91; Central Highlands Regional Growth Plan (2014); Plan for Victoria draft housing targets
- Conflicts with: Current development market trends (70/30 greenfield dominant); heritage protection objectives in accessible inner suburbs; Plan for Victoria 46,900-dwelling target (Strategy only plans to 28,961 by 2041); State target of 70% infill (Strategy aspires to 50/50 progressing to 60/40)
- Companion documents: growth-areas-framework-plan (greenfield staging); neighbourhood-character-study (design guidance); Social and Affordable Housing Action Plan (affordable housing delivery); Draft Industrial Land Strategy (urban renewal supply); Ballarat Open Space Strategy; Ballarat Biodiversity Strategy; Draft Integrated Transport Strategy
Implementation Risk Assessment
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential zones review delayed beyond 2027 | High (20 months elapsed, no commencement) | Critical — change areas have no statutory effect | Ministerial direction; state intervention via VC amendments |
| Urban renewal structure plans delayed >5 years | High (none commenced) | Severe — 8,643 dwelling yield inaccessible | Prioritise highest-readiness precincts (Skipton St, Lal Lal St — smallest, least contaminated) |
| Market rejects medium-density in Ballarat | Moderate | Severe — infill strategy depends on typological shift | Future Homes exemplar designs; Clause 53.23 facilitated pathway; demonstration projects |
| Flood overlay update (C217ball) constrains more land than expected | Moderate | Moderate — reduces established area capacity | Already accounted for in capacity assessment methodology |
| Heritage Gaps Analysis expands Heritage Overlay | Moderate | Moderate — further restricts accessible area infill potential | Incremental change designation already accounts for HO; marginal additional impact |
| Plan for Victoria 46,900 target becomes binding | Moderate | Significant — Strategy insufficient beyond 2041 | Existing theoretical supply (57,093) provides headroom; growth areas provide additional capacity |
| CHW cannot service urban renewal areas in time | Unknown | Severe — sewer/water is a hard blocker | CHW liaison ongoing; MCA framework includes CHW inputs |
| Contamination remediation costs exceed expectations | Moderate (for Latrobe Street/Saleyards particularly) | Moderate to Severe — delays or prevents residential conversion | State commitment to remediate Old Saleyards; EAO application ensures costs are identified before rezoning |
Cross-Jurisdictional Links
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Central Highlands Water (CHW): Sewer and water capacity is the binding constraint for both infill and greenfield development. CHW’s capital works program determines whether urban renewal areas can be serviced and whether greenfield staging can proceed. The Strategy identifies CHW as a key input for urban renewal prioritisation through the MCA framework. CHW was consulted directly in Stages 1 and 3. The 2014 infrastructure assessment’s ongoing relevance has been confirmed through continuing liaison. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
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Victorian Planning Authority (VPA): Preparing the ballarat-north-psp, which includes the 12.52% affordable housing demand assessment (July 2025). The VPA’s PSP development scenario assumes 20 dwellings per NDHA with an anticipated residential population of 15,713 (based on average 2.8 persons per dwelling) and minimum employment area of 16,500m². The VPA confirmed sufficient greenfield supply for almost 20 years during Strategy consultation, undermining arguments for additional greenfield rezonings. VPA analysis showed newer greenfield areas generally support 15–18 dwellings per NDHA while inner Ballarat supports densities above 20 dwellings per NDHA. (Source: vpa-ballarat-north-psp-affordable-housing-needs-assessment-vpa-july-2025.txt; housing-strategy-2041.txt)
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Department of Transport and Planning (DTP): Raised concerns about accessibility weighting methodology during consultation, particularly regarding train station weighting (100%). Highlighted “the significant costs to the City of Ballarat associated with the continued expansion of growth areas.” DTP also sought assurance that housing increases in accessible areas would be supported by transport service improvements. DTP provided comments on the NCS draft as part of Stage 2 consultation, including guidance on the need for further strategic work to inform preferred character statements. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt; neighbourhood-character-study.txt)
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Corangamite CMA: Partner in the Ballarat 11 Waterways Flood Study, which directly constrains infill capacity through updated flood overlay mapping. Also a partner in ongoing flood risk management along the Yarrowee River (which flows through the CBD) and other waterways. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
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Infrastructure Victoria: The compact city infrastructure cost differential (2–4x more expensive in growth areas, approximately $59,000 extra per home in dispersed vs compact city) is a foundational argument for the infill shift. The 2023 research Choosing Victoria’s Future: 5 Urban Development Scenarios provides the analytical basis for the compact city benefits cited throughout the Strategy. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
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Environment Protection Authority (EPA): Consulted during Stage 3 (August–October 2023). EPA requirements and Ministerial Direction 1 (Potentially Contaminated Land) govern the contamination assessment and remediation process required before urban renewal areas can accommodate sensitive (residential) uses. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
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Powercor and AusNet Services: Electricity (Powercor) and gas (AusNet) infrastructure capacity is an input to the urban renewal MCA prioritisation framework. Energy infrastructure augmentation required for substantial change areas depends on these utilities’ capital works programs. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
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Housing Australia / Federal Government: The Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) and National Housing Accord collectively support 20,000 new social and 20,000 new affordable homes across Australia over five years. The Regional Precincts and Partnerships Program (RPPP) supports transformative investment in regional places. These federal programs represent potential funding sources for affordable housing delivery in Ballarat. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
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Homes Victoria / State Government: Action 4.1 of the Social and Affordable Housing Action Plan requires ongoing work with Homes Victoria to ensure Commonwealth Games-related housing commitments are delivered within the Ballarat municipality. (Source: social-and-affordable-housing-action-plan_july-2024.txt)
Risks and Contingencies
Downside Scenarios
If greenfield supply exhausts before infill ramp-up: Under BAU (80/20 greenfield-dominant patterns), greenfield capacity runs out in approximately 18 years — before 2041. If the infill strategy has not been operationalised by that point, Ballarat faces a supply crisis requiring emergency greenfield rezonings, undermining the compact city objective and the GAFP’s staging logic. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
If urban renewal areas underperform: The 8,643-dwelling urban renewal yield depends on structure plans, contamination remediation, infrastructure augmentation, and market acceptance. If even two of the six precincts (say, Latrobe Street Saleyards at 1,574 and CBD at 4,000) are delayed by 5+ years due to contamination costs or market resistance, 5,574 dwellings (65% of urban renewal capacity) are effectively removed from the supply pipeline for the Strategy’s planning horizon. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
If the Plan for Victoria targets become binding: If the State legislates the 46,900-dwelling target for Ballarat by 2051, the Strategy’s 28,961-dwelling planning framework is insufficient. Council would need to plan for an additional ~18,000 dwellings in the decade beyond 2041 — requiring either additional greenfield release, significantly higher infill densities, or both. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
If heritage protections expand: The Heritage Gaps Analysis currently underway may identify additional heritage places and precincts requiring overlay protection. Each additional heritage overlay application in an accessible location reduces the pool of substantial change land and redirects development pressure elsewhere. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
Upside Scenarios
If state planning reforms accelerate delivery: Amendment VC242 (Clause 53.23 Significant Residential Development), Future Homes (Clause 53.24), and Small Second Homes provide state-facilitated pathways that bypass some local barriers. If these are actively used in Ballarat — particularly Future Homes within 800m of the two railway stations (excluding Heritage Overlay land) — they could contribute infill dwellings independently of the residential zones review timeline. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt; neighbourhood-character-study.txt)
If CHW infrastructure investment enables urban renewal: Central Highlands Water’s capital works program is the binding constraint for several urban renewal areas. If CHW prioritises servicing capacity for the Wendouree Station Precinct or CBD — both of which have existing adjacent infrastructure — early development of these precincts could demonstrate market viability for medium-density development in Ballarat, creating precedent and investor confidence for subsequent urban renewal areas. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
If the market shifts toward smaller dwellings: Declining household sizes, ageing population, and affordability pressures may organically shift demand toward smaller dwelling types over the Strategy’s 20-year horizon. If this shift materialises, the infill strategy becomes easier to deliver because the market wants what infill provides (smaller, more affordable, closer to services). The housing preferences survey finding that 21% of moving households preferred 1–2 bedrooms — while modest — may represent a leading indicator of broader preference change. (Source: ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt)
28. Dwelling Production Rate Analysis: What Must Be Delivered, Year by Year
The Strategy’s 28,961-dwelling target across 20 years (2021–2041) requires an average annual production rate of approximately 1,448 dwellings per year. However, this average obscures significant variation in what has been achieved and what remains to be delivered.
Historical Production Rates
Building permit data reveals the following annual production:
| Year | Total Dwellings | Annual Rate | Cumulative Since 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1,017 | — | — |
| 2020 | 1,715 | — | — |
| 2021 | 2,013 | 2,013 | 2,013 |
| 2022 | 1,570 | 1,570 | 3,583 |
| 2023 | 1,087 | 1,087 | 4,670 |
| 2024 (Jan–Apr) | 339 | ~1,017 (annualised) | ~5,348 |
(Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt, Table 8)
The 2021–2023 average annual production was 1,557 dwellings — above the required 1,448 rate. However, this was driven almost entirely by greenfield production (averaging ~1,137 greenfield dwellings per year vs ~420 infill). The annualised 2024 figure of approximately 1,017 represents a sharp decline — 30% below the required rate — reflecting broader housing market softening. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
Remaining Target Calculation
If approximately 5,348 dwellings were delivered between 2021 and April 2024 (3.33 years), then approximately 23,613 dwellings remain to be delivered in the 17 remaining years to 2041. This requires an average annual production rate of 1,389 dwellings per year — achievable relative to recent history, but only if the current market downturn reverses.
The more challenging dimension is the infill/greenfield split within this quantum:
| Scenario | Required Annual Infill | Required Annual Greenfield | Total | Feasibility Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current pattern (30/70) | ~417 | ~972 | 1,389 | Consistent with recent trends but exhausts greenfield in 18 years |
| Strategy target (40/60 transitioning to 50/50) | ~556–695 | ~694–833 | 1,389 | Requires 33–67% increase in annual infill above current levels |
| State target (70/30) | ~972 | ~417 | 1,389 | Requires 133% increase in annual infill — unprecedented in Ballarat |
(Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt; ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt; analyst calculation)
The 50/50 scenario requires Ballarat to deliver approximately 600–700 infill dwellings per year from approximately 2031 onwards. The highest annual infill production recorded (2021: 587) was achieved during a COVID-era boom with stimulus-inflated demand. Sustaining or exceeding this level on a permanent basis would represent a structural market transformation, not a cyclical peak. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
The 2031 Inflection Point
The Strategy projects that “from 2031 onwards infill will become the dominant form of development.” This projection is entirely contingent on implementation. The seven years between now (2026) and the 2031 inflection point must deliver:
- Planning scheme amendment to embed the Housing Strategy and GAFP (currently not commenced)
- Residential zones review to translate change areas into zone controls (currently not commenced)
- At least one urban renewal structure plan to unlock the 8,643-dwelling urban renewal pipeline (currently not commenced)
- **NCS preferred char
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Gaps in This Analysis
Documents Referenced but Not in Corpus
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Ballarat Infill Prioritisation Framework (Astrolabe, 2024) — the MCA tool for prioritising urban renewal areas. Would reveal which specific sites Council considers highest-priority and most feasible, and the sequencing logic for structure planning. CRITICAL — directly determines which urban renewal areas proceed first.
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Accessibility and Connectivity Analysis (Tract, 2023/2024, Appendix 3 of Housing Strategy) — the full methodology and findings of the accessibility rating analysis. Would provide the specific accessibility scores for all residential land and reveal which areas fall above and below the 70% threshold. IMPORTANT — shapes the Change Area boundaries.
-
Urban Change Readiness Index Survey (Studio THI, 2022, Appendix 1 of Housing Strategy) — full detailed report of community attitudes. Summary data is in the Housing Strategy but the full report would provide demographic breakdowns and locality-specific attitudes. USEFUL.
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Strategic Planning for Bushfire in the City of Ballarat (Kevin Hazell Bushfire Planning, 2020) — the landscape classification maps that determine minimal change area boundaries. IMPORTANT — defines the spatial extent of minimal change.
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CBD Urban Design Framework (Hodyl & Co, Draft February 2021) — the only document with a quantified affordable housing target (5%). Status unclear; may have been superseded. IMPORTANT.
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Wendouree Railway Station Precinct Master Plan (adopted November 2022) — the detailed plan for the second-largest urban renewal yield (2,191 dwellings). Not implemented; revision advised. IMPORTANT.
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Draft Industrial Land Strategy (City of Ballarat, 2024) — identifies additional urban renewal areas beyond those in the Housing Strategy. IMPORTANT.
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Ballarat Growth Areas Framework Plan (City of Ballarat, 2024) — companion document for Western and North-Western growth areas with infrastructure requirements and staging. See growth-areas-framework-plan. CRITICAL — determines greenfield staging that directly affects the infill/greenfield balance.
Key Facts Requiring Web Research
- Current status of the planning scheme amendment process — whether Ministerial authorisation has been sought or granted
- Progress on the residential zones review — whether consultants have been engaged
- Status of the CBD Structure Plan — whether the new suite of plans has commenced
- Whether any urban renewal structure plans have been initiated
- Amendment C217ball status — whether flood overlay updates have been exhibited or approved
- CHW current capital works program and servicing capacity for urban renewal areas
- Updated building permit data for 2024–2026 showing whether the infill share has changed
- Status of the Housing Solutions Broker position (Action 2.6 of the Action Plan)
- Whether any land audits (Actions 1.2–1.4) have been completed
- Plan for Victoria final housing targets — whether the draft 46,900 figure has been revised
Documents in Corpus Not Yet Fully Exploited
The following source documents are in the corpus and have been drawn upon for this analysis, but contain additional detail that could deepen specific analytical themes:
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neighbourhood-character-study.txt — Contains full precinct profile descriptions (Section 8) with detailed design guidelines for each of the ten character areas, including specific setback requirements, material palettes, roof forms, and fencing guidance. These profiles run to approximately 60 pages and provide the granular design control content that will eventually be embedded in zone schedules. A separate neighbourhood-character-study wiki page should provide the full precinct-by-precinct analysis.
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social-and-affordable-housing-action-plan_july-2024.txt — Contains additional actions under Themes 4 (Partnerships) and 5 (Advocacy) that address the relationship with Homes Victoria, community housing providers, MAV advocacy for legislative reform, and monitoring mechanisms. A separate analysis of the affordable housing delivery framework could cross-reference this with the VPA’s 12.52% demand figure.
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housing-strategy-2041.txt — The appendices (Appendices 1–5) are referenced but not all are separately extracted. The Urban Change Readiness Index (Appendix 1) and the Accessibility and Connectivity Analysis (Appendix 3) in particular would add depth if separately available.
Data Currency Note
All building permit data in this analysis covers January 2019 to April 2024 (the period reported in the Housing Strategy). Updated data for the period May 2024 to April 2026 would be essential for assessing whether the infill share has changed since the Strategy’s adoption. The Strategy’s Implementation Plan identifies ongoing monitoring of “population growth and housing supply in line with up-to-date information including Victoria in Future publications, housing development data and the Urban Development Program” — but whether this monitoring is occurring is unknown. (Source: housing-strategy-2041.txt)
All population projections use a 2021 Census base. The 2026 Census (anticipated mid-2026) will provide a critical data point for validating whether Ballarat’s growth trajectory is tracking the high (2.1% AAGR), moderate (1.8%) or low (1.6%) scenario. If actual growth is tracking moderate rather than high, the dwelling demand quantum may be lower (25,483 vs 28,961) — potentially reducing urgency for the infill shift but also reducing greenfield pressure. (Source: ballarats-future-housing-2021-2041-housing-needs-analysis-sgs-2023.txt)
Cross-References to Other Wiki Pages
The following wiki pages are cross-referenced from this analysis and should be compiled or verified:
- growth-areas-framework-plan — Companion document for Western and North-Western growth areas
- ballarat-north-psp — VPA-led PSP for the Northern Growth Area (Core Area)
- ballarat-strategy-2040 — The predecessor strategic document (Today, Tomorrow, Together)
- amendment-c217ball — Flood overlay update for 11 waterways
- neighbourhood-character-study — Full precinct profile analysis
- ballarat-west-psp — Existing PSP for the primary greenfield area
- social-and-affordable-housing-action-plan — Affordable housing delivery framework
- industrial-land-strategy — Urban renewal supply from industrial transition
- ballarat-biodiversity-strategy — Biodiversity constraints and canopy targets
- ballarat-integrated-transport-strategy — Transport accessibility underpinning change area logic
These cross-references form an interconnected web of strategic documents that collectively define Ballarat’s planning framework. The Housing Strategy sits at the centre of this web — its implementation depends on progress across all companion documents, and delay in any one (particularly the residential zones review and urban renewal structure plans) co
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This page was compacted for UI and Obsidian readability. The underlying source documents and extracted text remain in the evidence corpus.