title: North Western Growth Area PSP (in preparation) council: ballarat state: vic category: growth-area classification: MAJOR status: framework-plan-adopted last_compiled: 2026-04-16 source_docs:
- growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt
- 14-august-2024-planning-delegated-committee-meeting-agenda-with-attachments.txt
- ballarat-igaf.txt
- avenue-of-honour-conservation-management-plan-2014.txt
- koala-plan-of-management-part-1.txt
- koala-plan-of-management-part-2.txt
- council-record-arch-of-victory-avenue-of-honour-24-june-2025.txt
- council-record-arch-of-victory-avenue-of-honour-28-october-2025.txt
- vpa-ballarat-igaf-project-page.txt
- ballarat-growth-areas-framework-plan-2024.txt
North Western Growth Area PSP (in preparation)
The North Western Growth Area is a 698-hectare future growth front that presents the most complex constraint profile of any greenfield area in Ballarat. Bisected by Remembrance Drive — the Ballarat Avenue of Honour (HO154), Australia’s longest commemorative avenue at 22 kilometres with 3,771 trees, listed on the Victorian Heritage Register — the area faces an irreducible tension between the infrastructure demands of 7,200–9,600 dwellings and the heritage imperative to preserve a nationally significant war memorial. The 2014 Conservation Management Plan mandates a 20-metre no-built-form buffer, prohibits new intersections except as a last resort, and warns of “irreversible adverse impacts from cumulative development pressures.” Full development would require upgrading Remembrance Drive to four traffic lanes without compromising heritage significance — a challenge the IGAF describes as “substantial.” At an indicative DCP of 490,288–882,800/NDHa (the highest range in regional Victoria), total infrastructure cost of $458 million, and the IGAF’s explicit placement of this area last in Ballarat’s greenfield queue with a DCP timeframe of 2053–2066, the NW Growth Area is a multi-generational proposition that may never proceed if Plan for Victoria’s compact city objectives are achieved.
Background
Strategic Policy Context
The NW Growth Area sits within a policy framework that has shifted significantly over the past decade. Understanding this evolution is essential because each successive policy layer has made the NW Growth Area harder — not easier — to develop.
Plan for Victoria sets a housing target of 46,900 net new dwellings in the City of Ballarat to 2051, of which 18,900 (40 percent) should be in greenfield areas and 28,000 (60 percent) in established areas. This is a major policy shift: currently around 70 percent of new homes in Ballarat are built in greenfield areas. The IGAF states that achieving the 60/40 target “will require a significant shift to delivering more dwellings in established areas of Ballarat.” At the Plan for Victoria’s assumed average rate of 1,675 dwellings per year, the greenfield component is 670 dwellings per year — a rate that existing zoned land and the Ballarat North PSP Core Area can accommodate for approximately 25 years without any additional rezoning. (Source: ballarat-igaf.txt, Executive Summary)
Victoria’s Housing Statement (2024–2034) reinforces the compact city direction: 70 percent of new homes in established areas, 30 percent in growth areas. The IGAF was updated in 2025 to align with Plan for Victoria’s directions. (Source: ballarat-igaf.txt, Section 1.2)
Ballarat Strategy 2040 originally set a 50:50 split between greenfield and infill. The Housing Strategy 2041 embedded this as an aspirational target. Plan for Victoria’s 60/40 target is more ambitious again — and directly reduces the quantum of greenfield land needed. (Source: growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt)
Central Highlands Regional Growth Plan 2014 identifies Ballarat as a regional centre requiring land supply planning. The NW Growth Area is identified as a long-term investigation area, not an immediate growth front. (Source: growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt)
The combined effect of these policy layers is unambiguous: every strategic document at every level of government has progressively strengthened the case for compact city growth and weakened the case for peripheral greenfield expansion. The NW Growth Area, at 11.4 km from the Ballarat Central Activity District — the most distant of any growth front — is the area most directly affected by this policy trajectory.
Planning History and Decisions
The NW Growth Area’s planning history is one of consistent deferral across eight years of investigations:
1. Ballarat Strategy 1998 — Identified Ballarat West as the primary growth front. The NW area was not contemplated. (Source: growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt)
2. Ballarat Long Term Growth Options Investigation (Hansen/Arup/Tim Nott, 2018) — Assessed four Greenfield Investigation Areas (Northern, Western, North-Western, Eastern). The study ranked the NW GIA last for development among all four areas. Key findings: “it did not reinforce the compact city form, with almost none of the landholdings within an accessible 10 minute drive from the Ballarat CBD and relatively high infrastructure costs to service.” Even if viable, “development was recommended as a long-term consideration once other proposed growth areas reach close to capacity.” The Northern GIA was recommended as the preferred growth location. (Source: ballarat-igaf.txt, Section 4.2.2; growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt)
3. Council Resolution 16 September 2020 — Council received a land supply report for the 2019/2020 financial year demonstrating high growth rates and supporting the need to advance planning work. Predictions estimated that the required 15 years of land supply would be diminished by 2025 when remaining Ballarat West land would be constrained and fragmented. Council resolved to proceed with rezoning of the Northern and Western Greenfield Investigation Areas. (Source: growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt)
4. Council Resolution 23 February 2022 — Council resolved to: (a) seek Ministerial authorisation to rezone the growth areas; (b) commence preparation of a PSP for the Northern Growth Area; and (c) prepare a Growth Areas Framework Plan for the Western and NW growth areas. The NW Growth Area boundary was expanded from the original GIA to i
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Analysis
Land Supply and Yield Analysis
The Framework Plan and IGAF provide two sets of yield estimates. Their differences are material and require reconciliation:
| Metric | Framework Plan (2024) | IGAF (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Total area | 698 ha | 687 ha |
| Net developable area | 500 ha | 480 ha (implied) |
| Anticipated dwellings | 7,200–9,600 | 8,560 |
| Anticipated population | 19,400–25,900 | Not stated |
| Retail floorspace | 18,892 sqm | Not stated |
| Potential employment | 777 FTE | Not stated |
| Distance to CAD | 11.4 km (outermost) | Not stated |
(Source: growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt; ballarat-igaf.txt, Table 8)
Density assumptions. The Framework Plan targets an average of 20 dwellings per net developable hectare, while acknowledging that “some areas will accommodate lower densities” and that “the final densities will be determined in the PSPs.” At 20 dw/NDHa applied to 500 ha NDA, the upper yield is 10,000 dwellings — above the stated 9,600 maximum. This suggests the Framework Plan already factors in some constraint-driven density reductions. The lower estimate of 7,200 dwellings implies an effective density of 14.4 dw/NDHa, well below the State Planning Policy Framework’s minimum of 15 dw/NDHa — suggesting the Framework Plan contemplates significant areas of low-density development driven by visual sensitivity and heritage constraints. (Source: growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt)
The IGAF’s single-point estimate of 8,560 dwellings on 687 ha gross implies approximately 480 ha NDA at 17.8 dw/NDHa — a realistic density for a heavily constrained precinct in regional Victoria, though still below the Framework Plan’s aspirational 20 dw/NDHa target.
Low-density investigation. Framework Plan Action 12 specifically requires investigation of “low density residential zoning in parts of sub precinct 2 to limit visual impact of development.” Sub-precinct 2 is the northern portion of the NW Growth Area (Precinct 5 in the DCP modelling), where “high visual sensitivity exists within the eastern and western portion of the area due to gently sloping terrain” and where Mount Beckworth and Waubra Wind Farm are visible. If low-density zoning (e.g., Low Density Residential Zone at 2 dw/ha) is applied to even 50 ha of Precinct 5, lot yield would be reduced by approximately 900 lots below the 20 dw/ha assumption — a 10.5% reduction on Precinct 5’s headline yield of 3,440. (Source: growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt)
Precinct structure. The NW Growth Area comprises two precincts — the last in the Framework Plan’s five-precinct sequencing across both growth areas:
| Sequence | Precinct | NDA (ha) | Dwellings (high) | DCP Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Precinct 4 (southern) | 308 | 6,160 | 2053–2063 |
| 5 | Precinct 5 (northern) | 172 | 3,440 | 2058–2066 |
(Source: 14-august-2024-planning-delegated-committee-meeting-agenda-with-attachments.txt, Taylors Engineering Servicing Strategy)
Precinct 4 interfaces with the Lucas estate and the Ballarat-Skipton Rail Trail to the south-east, providing the closest connection to existing infrastructure and services. Precinct 5, in the northern portion, is the most remote sub-precinct in the entire western growth corridor. It falls towards the north-west across difficult terrain requiring multiple sewer pump stations, is under the airport flight path, and has the highest per-hectare infrastructure cost of any precinct in Ballarat. (Source: 14-august-2024-planning-delegated-committee-meeting-agenda-with-attachments.txt)
Active transport connectivity sequencing. The Taylors Engineering Servicing Strategy notes that “having Precinct 4 connect first leverages the existing Skipton Rail Trail and Remembrance Drive path.” By contrast, “Precinct 5 last” for active transport access. For public transport, “Precinct 1 would precede Precinct 4 given there are existing services in the south-east connecting to the boundary” — meaning Precinct 4 of the NW Growth Area ranks fourth out of five precincts for public transport accessibility. (Source: 14-august-2024-planning-delegated-committee-meeting-agenda-with-attachments.txt)
Land supply context. The IGAF found that existing zoned greenfield land in Ballarat provides approximatel
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Current Status
Framework Plan adopted 14 August 2024. Zoning: CDZ1 with no active planning control. No PSP commenced. No DCP prepared. Per the IGAF (September 2025), Council must not progress rezoning in the short term (to 2028). The IGAF places the NW Growth Area last in Ballarat’s greenfield sequencing, with a DCP timeframe of 2053–2066.
The Avenue of Honour Stakeholder Reference Group remains active (meetings 24 June 2025 and 28 October 2025), with DTP and National Trust representation at the October meeting. CMP revision was discussed at the October meeting but has not been formally commenced. The Arch of Victory regilding contract is proceeding. (Source: council-record-arch-of-victory-avenue-of-honour-24-june-2025.txt; council-record-arch-of-victory-avenue-of-honour-28-october-2025.txt)
The IGAF requires biannual land supply reporting by Council. Recommendation 3 states Council should report every two years on progress against Plan for Victoria targets, with findings focusing on whether sequencing recommendations need adjustment. The first such report is anticipated around 2027. (Source: ballarat-igaf.txt, Executive Summary)
What happens next:
- Council continues to monitor land supply annually
- IGAF-required biannual report (expected ~2027) assesses whether sequencing adjustments are needed
- CMP review (Action 3) — timing unknown, but discussed at October 2025 stakeholder meeting
- If and when the Western Growth Area PSP proceeds (DCP timeframe 2034–2055), it will consume Council’s growth area planning resources — “simultaneous preparation of multiple PSPs will not be supported unless necessitated by strategic policy”
- NW Growth Area PSP preparation cannot commence until all five sequencing dependencies and both pre-planning thresholds are resolved
- The Framework Plan must be reviewed every 5 years
Dependencies
- Blocks: PSP preparation and rezoning for NW Growth Area Precincts 4–5; future DCP preparation; Indoor Recreation Centre (serves both growth areas — located here); 30-hectare Regional Active Open Space investigation
- Blocked by: IGAF sequencing (last in queue); Remembrance Drive heritage resolution (CMP vs road capacity — fundamental unresolved tension); Ballarat Link Road Stages 2–3 (unfunded); Central Highlands Water major upgrade funding (post-2028 at earliest); Western Growth Area (must develop first per Framework Plan sequencing); all 70+ pre-PSP actions unresolved; Plan for Victoria settlement boundary; demonstration of greenfield supply need prior to 2051
- Informed by: Avenue of Honour Conservation Management Plan (John Wadsley, 2014); Taylors Engineering Servicing Strategy (November 2023); SGS Development Contributions and Infrastructure Funding Assessment (2024); ASR Community Infrastructure Assessment (November 2023); Alluvium IWM Strategy (2023); Alluvium Surface and Stormwater Management Strategy (2024); One Mile Grid Traffic and Transport Assessment (2024); Macroplan Retail Analysis (February 2024); Ballarat Long Term Growth Options Investigation (Hansen/Arup/Tim Nott, 2018); Comprehensive Koala Plan of Management (Schlagloth & Thomson, 2006); Ballarat Airport Strategy and Master Plan (2024); Avenue of Honour Urban Design Guidelines (Hansen Partnership, 2010)
- Implements: Ballarat Strategy 2040 Initiative 3.6; Housing Strategy 2041 greenfield targets; Central Highlands Regional Growth Plan 2014
- Conflicts with: IGAF sequencing; Avenue of Honour CMP (opposes road duplication); Plan for Victoria 60/40 growth split; Heritage Victoria/National Trust heritage protection objectives; compact city policy direction at all government levels
Cross-Jurisdictional Links
- Heritage Victoria — Victorian Heritage Register listing for Avenue of Honour; any works affecting the heritage place require Heritage Victoria permit. Heritage Victoria permits have been issued for previous intersection works (e.g., Permit P18079 for Dyson Drive/Western Link Road allowing removal and replacement of 60 Avenue trees). Heritage Victoria’s position on full-scale road duplication west of Dyson Drive is untested. (Source: avenue-of-honour-conservation-management-plan-2014.txt, Section 2.4.15, Section 11.4.2)
- National Trust of Australia (Victoria) — National Trust representative attended the October 2025 Stakeholder Reference Group meeting, indicating ongoing heritage governance engagement. National Trust classification of the Avenue would add a further layer of advocacy for heritage protection. (Source: council-record-arch-of-victory-avenue-of-honour-28-october-2025.txt)
- Department of Transport and Planning — VicRoads-controlled roadway (Remembrance Drive is TRZ2); DTP representative attended October 2025 Stakeholder Group providing update on “upcoming works along the Arch of Victory / Avenue of Honour”; DTP responsible for arterial road upgrades and Link Road; IGAF author (through VPA). (Source: growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt; council-record-arch-of-victory-avenue-of-honour-28-october-2025.txt)
- Central Highlands Water — water and sewer servicing authority; major upgrades currently unfunded; post-2028 pricing submission is the earliest window for funding; multiple pump stations required for Precinct 5 due to terrain. (Source: ballarat-igaf.txt, Section 4.2.2; 14-august-2024-planning-delegated-committee-meeting-agenda-with-attachments.txt)
- Victorian Planning Authority — IGAF author; Ministerial Direction 18 consultation role; PSP preparation authority. The IGAF, once approved by the Minister for Planning, “should act as a guide to the City of Ballarat as it prioritises and progresses future amendments to their planning scheme.” (Source: ballarat-igaf.txt, Implementation section)
- Glenelg Hopkins CMA / Corangamite CMA — split drainage management across the growth area; dual-CMA jurisdiction adds complexity to drainage design and approval
- Powercor — electricity servicing; both growth areas “can be serviced with electricity, water, sewer and telecommunication utilities through upgrades into the precincts” (Source: growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt)
- Ballarat Airport — runway centreline directly overflies the area; noise contours; OLS applies to most of site; Airport Strategy and Master Plan 2024 may change AEO extent
- Wadawurrung Aboriginal Corporation — Registered Aboriginal Party; Aboriginal Heritage Act 2006 obligations; Framework Plan Action 40 requires engagement on cultural and environmental values
- Lucas Past Employees Association — community heritage stakeholder represented on Stakeholder Reference Group; historical connection to the Lucas clothing factory workers who planted the Avenue of Honour. Their ongoing engagement demonstrates living community heritage values. (Source: council-record-arch-of-victory-avenue-of-honour-24-june-2025.txt; avenue-of-honour-conservation-management-plan-2014.txt)
- Golden Plains Shire Council — Cambrian Hill 3,000-lot proposal; cross-boundary infrastructure and service demand implications; Growing Places Strategy addresses long-term planning for Cambrian Hill
Gaps in This Analysis
The following documents are referenced across the corpus but not available as standalone files in the extracted text. Their absence limits the depth of specific analytical areas:
- Avenue of Honour Urban Design Guidelines (Hansen Partnership, 2010) — referenced in the Alfredton West PSP and the Framework Plan (Action 3) as requiring review and update for the NW Growth Area; this is the primary document governing the development-heritage interface at Lucas and its extension is critical for NW PSP design. Priority: CRITICAL
- One Mile Grid Traffic and Transport Assessment (2024) — the primary traffic modelling document for both growth areas; critical for understanding Remembrance Drive capacity, alternative route modelling, and the traffic volumes that trigger road duplication. Contains analysis of development capacity without the Link Road. The transport modelling is the key input to resolving the heritage-transport impasse. Priority: CRITICAL
- Taylors Engineering Servicing Strategy (November 2023) — primary infrastructure cost source including sewer pump station design, water main sizing, and detailed sewer/water project lists. Partially available through the delegated committee agenda but standalone document not extracted. Priority: IMPORTANT
- SGS Development Contributions and Infrastructure Funding Assessment (2024) — partially available through the delegated committee agenda; external demand assumption tables, demand timing projections, and alternative funding analysis in appendices not fully extracted. Priority: IMPORTANT
- ASR Community Infrastructure Assessment (November 2023) — community facility needs assessment; catchment analysis for schools, kindergartens, community centres; standalone not available. Priority: IMPORTANT
- Alluvium IWM Strategy (2023) and Surface and Stormwater Management Strategy (2024) — waterway corridor design, retarding basin specifications, flood modelling; standalone not available. Priority: IMPORTANT
- Macroplan Retail Analysis (February 2024) — retail demand estimates, activity centre design; standalone not available. Priority: USEFUL
- Central Highlands Water pricing submission (post-2028) — determines water/sewer infrastructure funding timeline; not yet prepared. Priority: CRITICAL (when available)
- Plan for Victoria settlement boundary — may exclude the NW Growth Area entirely; not yet determined. Priority: CRITICAL (when available)
- Updated ANEF and Airport Environs Overlay — outcome of Council/Airservices consultation unknown. Priority: IMPORTANT
- VPA IGAF final Ministerially-approved version — formal approval status unknown; the September 2025 version is labelled “Public Facing” but ministerial sign-off is not confirmed. Priority: IMPORTANT
- National Heritage List re-nomination — CMP recommends re-nomination of the Avenue/Arch; if listed, the heritage constraint regime would elevate from state to national level, adding EPBC Act requirements to any development proposal. Priority: IMPORTANT
- Mineshaft site ID 377047 condition assessment — located at NE corner; condition unknown; may require remediation. Priority: USEFUL
- Remembrance Drive traffic capacity modelling — the IGAF asserts four lanes are needed but no published modelling quantifies the traffic volumes that trigger this requirement or evaluates alternative route adequacy. This is the critical analytical gap for the NW Growth Area — without it, the heritage-vs-capacity impasse cannot be resolved. Priority: CRITICAL
- Ballarat Long Term Growth Options Investigation (Hansen/Arup/Tim Nott, 2018) — primary source for the NW GIA ranking; only available through secondary references in the IGAF and Framework Plan. Priority: USEFUL
- Koala Plan of Management Part 2 — technical appendices including habitat mapping, linking areas, and planning guidelines for koala conservation; relevant for ESO5 constraints analysis. Priority: USEFUL
See _gaps.md for the complete corpus gap analysis.
Detailed Infrastructure Analysis
Sewer Servicing: Technical Deep Dive
The Taylors Engineering Servicing Strategy (2024) provides detailed sewer infrastructure requirements for the NW Growth Area. Understanding these specifics is essential because the sewer constraints directly affect precinct sequencing, lot timing, and Council’s fiscal exposure.
Discharge and treatment. Sewer flows from the NW Growth Area will ultimately be conveyed and treated at the Ballarat South Wastewater Treatment Plant, located to the south-east of the NW Growth Area. This requires a significant length of downstream trunk sewer infrastructure to be constructed across the Western Growth Area and the existing Ballarat West PSP. Central Highlands Water (CHW) has advised that “significant upgrades to the existing sewer network are required to provide adequate levels of service.” (Source: 14-august-2024-planning-delegated-committee-meeting-agenda-with-attachments.txt, Taylors Section 8.2.3)
Pump station network. Due to the difficult terrain — particularly Precinct 5, which “falls towards the north-west” — the NW Growth Area requires three dedicated sewer pump stations:
-
Draffins Road SPS — Located in the north-west corner of Precinct 5 adjacent to Draffins Road and the Serviceton Railway line level crossing. A rising main conveys sewage south along Draffins Road to Smarts Hill Road. This pump station serves the most remote part of Precinct 5.
-
Smarts Hill Road SPS — Located along the western boundary of Precinct 4, adjacent to Smarts Hill Road and the future north-south connector road. A rising main conveys sewage south to Cuthberts Road.
-
Cuthberts Road SPS — Located in the south-west corner of Precinct 4, adjacent to the intersection of Cuthberts Road and the future north-south connector road. A rising main conveys sewage east along Cuthberts Road.
(Source: 14-august-2024-planning-delegated-committee-meeting-agenda-with-attachments.txt, Taylors Section 8.2.3)
Trunk sewer network. Four trunk sewer assets are required within the NW Growth Area:
- Smarts Hill Road trunk sewer (375–525mm diameter) discharging to the Smarts Hill Road SPS
- Finchs Road trunk sewer (375–525mm diameter) discharging to existing gravity infrastructure in Cuthberts Road, ultimately reaching the Alfredton West SPS
- Draffins Road trunk sewer (375–525mm diameter) discharging to the Draffins Road SPS
- Reticulation sewers (225–300mm diameter) within Precincts 4 and 5 — to be delivered by developers as required
(Source: 14-august-2024-planning-delegated-committee-meeting-agenda-with-attachments.txt, Taylors Section 8.2.3)
Critical downstream dependencies. Several sewer projects are required downstream of Precincts 4 and 5, outside the NW Growth Area boundary. These include large-diameter trunk sewer along Bells Road (825–1050mm), the North-South Connector Road trunk sewer (825–1050mm), and various medium-diameter assets. The Finchs Road trunk sewer relies on the Alfredton West SPS — an existing asset with finite capacity that eventually requires decommissioning once the Lakeland Drive Extension trunk sewer is built to provide a gravity outlet for Lucas Estate. (Source: 14-august-2024-planning-delegated-committee-meeting-agenda-with-attachments.txt, Taylors Section 8.2.4)
Practical implications:
- Three pump stations introduce three points of failure requiring redundancy planning and ongoing operational cost
- Pump stations require dedicated land (typically 0.1–0.2 ha each), electrical supply, odour management, and security fencing
- The sequence of sewer construction must match the sequence of subdivision — Precinct 5 cannot proceed before the Smarts Hill Road SPS, which cannot proceed before Cuthberts Road SPS, which cannot proceed before downstream trunk infrastructure is available at the Alfredton West outfall
- Ultimate decommissioning of the Alfredton West SPS (and Conroy’s Green and Winter Valley SPS) means that the entire sewer strategy is contingent on a coordinated multi-decade infrastructure programme that CHW has not yet funded
- The Ballarat South WWTP capacity to receive flows from both growth areas at ultimate development is not quantified in the available documents
Water Supply: Network Capacity and Upgrades
CHW has advised that **“its existing potable water network has capacity to service the existing community but will not be able to service the North-Western and We
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Community Infrastructure Deep Dive
Multipurpose Community Centres
The NW Growth Area requires three tiered community centres serving a projected population of 19,400–25,900:
Level 1 Multipurpose Community Centre (0.8 ha) — Basic community facility providing neighbourhood-level services. Typically co-located with a primary school or within a neighbourhood activity centre. Walkable catchment approximately 800m–1km radius. Serves approximately 3,000–5,000 residents.
Level 2 Multipurpose Community Centre (1.2 ha) — Mid-tier facility providing district-level services including larger meeting rooms, maternal and child health, and sessional kindergarten rooms. Walkable catchment approximately 1.5km radius. Serves approximately 6,000–10,000 residents.
Level 3 Multipurpose Community Centre (1.5 ha) — Largest tier providing regional-level services. Framework Plan Action 48 specifically requires determination of whether a library facility should be included “depending on expected population assumptions and travel times.” The nearest existing library facilities are within the Ballarat CBD, creating a significant travel distance for NW Growth Area residents. Walkable catchment radius 2km+. Serves approximately 15,000+ residents.
(Source: growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt; ASR Community Infrastructure Assessment as referenced)
Framework Plan Action 44 requires identification of one future community facility to provide a youth service function — particularly important given the NW Growth Area’s remoteness from the Ballarat CBD and the demographic skew of new estates toward young families. Action 49 investigates feasibility of “an independent and dedicated arts and cultural facility within one of the growth areas.” (Source: growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt)
Educational Facilities
Government schools:
- 3 Government Primary Schools
- 1 Government Secondary School
- 9–14 sessional kindergarten rooms
- 3.0 maternal and child health rooms (Source: growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt)
At an average primary school site of 3–4 ha and a secondary school site of 8–10 ha, the education land take is approximately 17–22 ha — another 3–4% of NDA reserved for education. Schools are funded by the Victorian Department of Education, not the DCP, but land acquisition and delivery timing are critical sequencing dependencies. Framework Plan Action 45 requires working with the Department of Education to confirm provision strategy. Action 43 requires a kindergarten provision strategy including shared approach to delivery and funding, co-location within schools, and a kindergarten infrastructure services plan. (Source: growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt)
Non-government schools:
- 2 Non-Government Primary Schools (shared with Western Growth Area)
- 1 Non-Government Secondary School (shared with Western Growth Area)
Framework Plan Action 46 requires working with the Diocese of Ballarat Catholic Education Limited (DOBCEL) and other local independent schools to confirm provision needs. The Catholic Siena Primary School in the existing Ballarat West PSP demonstrates that non-government provision is an established part of the Ballarat education landscape. (Source: growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt)
Higher education. Framework Plan Action 47 requires working with the Department of Education, Federation University, and Australian Catholic University to confirm provision needs for higher education. Federation University’s main Mount Helen campus is approximately 17 km from the NW Growth Area — a significant commute that would require public transport or car dependency. (Source: growth-areas-framework-plan-western-and-north-western-growth-areas_august-2024.txt)
Active Open Space and Recreation
Within the NW Growth Area:
- 3 Active Open Space reserves (30 ha total)
- 2 Sports Pavilions serving 2 playing areas each
- 1 Sports Pavilion serving 3 playing areas
- Passive open space (19 ha)
Shared with both growth areas:
- Regional Active Open Space of 30 ha (Framework Plan Action 33 requires feasibility investigation)
- Indoor Recreation Centre (up to 8 courts, 3 ha site) — to be located in the NW Growth Area (Framework Plan explicitly states this)
(Source:
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Scenario Analysis: Possible Futures
Given the deep uncertainties surrounding the NW Growth Area, it is useful to consider multiple possible futures and their implications.
Scenario A: Plan for Victoria Fully Achieved (60% infill / 40% greenfield)
Under this scenario, Ballarat successfully shifts the balance of new housing toward established areas. Existing zoned greenfield land and the Ballarat North PSP Core Area provide ~25 years of supply. The Ballarat North Expanded Area and Western Growth Area (together ~15,000 dwellings) provide an additional 20+ years at the reduced 670 dw/year greenfield rate. The NW Growth Area is not required before 2066 at the earliest, and may never proceed. Council should not commit resources to PSP preparation.
Implications:
- $458 million of potential infrastructure cost is avoided
- Heritage values along the Avenue of Honour are preserved
- The 8,560 dwellings of potential yield are substituted by infill development in established areas
- Council’s $18–208 million funding gap exposure is eliminated
- Plan for Victoria settlement boundary may be finalised excluding the NW Growth Area
Scenario B: Business-as-Usual (70% greenfield / 30% infill)
Under this scenario, Ballarat continues its historical pattern of predominantly greenfield growth. Greenfield demand runs at approximately 1,170 dwellings per year. The existing supply depletes faster: Ballarat West reaches capacity by ~2035, Ballarat North Core Area by ~2040, Expanded Area by ~2044. The Western Growth Area PSP commences ~2040 and the NW Growth Area PSP commences ~2050. Development proceeds from approximately 2053 onwards, consistent with the Framework Plan’s DCP timeframe.
Implications:
- PSP preparation costs (~$5–15 million over 5–7 years) are incurred from ~2048
- Heritage-transport impasse must be resolved — either by alternative transport solutions, CMP update, or reduced yield
- Council’s funding gap exposure materialises in the 2050s
- The 25-year gap to the first lot sale creates significant regulatory and market risk
Scenario C: Partial Shift (50% / 50%)
Under this scenario — consistent with the current Ballarat Strategy 2040 target — greenfield demand runs at approximately 835 dwellings per year. The NW Growth Area is required from approximately 2058. This falls within the Framework Plan’s DCP timeframe (2053–2066) but at the later end, suggesting Precinct 5 may not proceed before 2070.
Implications:
- Similar to Scenario B but with 5–7 year delay
- Greater chance that heritage and airport constraints intensify in the intervening period
- Technology and mode-shift factors further reduce transport infrastructure requirements
Scenario D: Heritage Impasse Unresolved
Under this scenario, neither alternative transport solutions nor a CMP update succeeds in resolving the heritage-transport tension. Heritage Victoria refuses permit for Remembrance Drive duplication. The NW Growth Area cannot accommodate its full projected yield — only 3,000–4,000 dwellings can be serviced without breaching road capacity. Yield is halved, fixed costs spread over fewer lots, DCP rate increases to $1.5M+/NDHa, development becomes unfeasible.
Implications:
- The NW Growth Area effectively becomes a low-density rural residential overlay area
- Most of the 698 ha remains in Farming Zone and CDZ1 indefinitely
- The Alluvium IWM Strategy’s environmental values and koala habitat are preserved
- Alternative greenfield supply must be found elsewhere — potentially reopening the Ballarat North Expanded Area or pursuing Cambrian Hill
Scenario E: Link Road Never Funded
Under this scenario, Stages 2–3 of the Ballarat Link Road never receive State or Federal funding. The entire transport strategy for both growth areas requires redesign. The Western Growth Area can still proceed with heavier reliance on Ballarat-Carngham Road and Cuthberts Road, but the NW Growth Area’s dependence on Link Road access to distribute cross-town traffic makes it substantially more difficult. The NW Growth Area may never proceed in its current form.
Implications:
- The $208M+ infrastructure cost is avoided
- Alternative access via Cuthberts Road/Airport Road requires its own significant upgrade
- Heritage pressures on Remembrance Drive intensify as only one east-west arterial corridor is available
Most Likely Scenario
Given the strength of state policy direction toward compact cities, the structural
Section clipped to keep the wiki page within the production size contract. Source files remain in the repository/extracted evidence corpus.
Timeline and Milestone Analysis
Key Dates and Deadlines
| Date | Event | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 1917–1919 | Avenue of Honour planted (3,771 trees, 22 km) | Historical |
| June 1920 | Avenue officially opened by Prince of Wales | Historical |
| 1998 | Ballarat Strategy — Ballarat West identified as primary growth area | Historical |
| 2006 | Comprehensive Koala Plan of Management (Schlagloth & Thomson) | Still in force |
| 2010 | Avenue of Honour Urban Design Guidelines (Hansen Partnership) | Current (requires review — Action 3) |
| 2014 | CMP for Avenue of Honour and Arch of Victory (John Wadsley) | Current (requires review — Action 3) |
| 2015 | Ballarat Strategy 2040 adopted | Current |
| 2018 | Long Term Growth Options Investigation (Hansen/Arup/Tim Nott) — NW ranked last | Historical |
| 16 September 2020 | Council resolution to advance rezoning of Northern and Western GIAs | Historical |
| 23 February 2022 | Council resolution to prepare Growth Areas Framework Plan | Historical |
| August 2022 | Minister appoints VPA for Ballarat North PSP; instructs IGAF preparation | Historical |
| November 2023 | Taylors Services Investigation Report | Complete |
| November 2023 | ASR Community Infrastructure Assessment | Complete |
| 2023 | Alluvium IWM Strategy | Complete |
| February 2024 | Macroplan Retail Analysis | Complete |
| 2024 | Alluvium Surface and Stormwater Management Strategy | Complete |
| 2024 | Ballarat Airport Strategy and Master Plan | Complete |
| 2024 | One Mile Grid Traffic and Transport Assessment | Complete |
| 8 May 2024 | Planning Delegated Committee approves consultation on draft Framework Plan | Historical |
| May 2024 | Community consultation on draft Framework Plan (28 submissions + 14 survey) | Complete |
| July 2024 | Revised Framework Plan prepared | Historical |
| 14 August 2024 | Framework Plan adopted by Planning Delegated Committee | Historical |
| August 2024 | SGS DCP Assessment | Complete |
| September 2025 | IGAF Public Facing version released | Current |
| 24 June 2025 | AoV/AoH Stakeholder Reference Group meeting | Historical |
| 28 October 2025 | AoV/AoH Stakeholder Reference Group meeting (with DTP, National Trust) | Historical |
| 2026 (anticipated) | Ballarat West PSP and DCP Review — updated documents gazetted | Expected |
| To 2028 | Short term: Council “must not progress additional rezoning” (IGAF) | Active constraint |
| ~2027 | First biannual land supply report (IGAF Recommendation 3) | Anticipated |
| Post-2028 | CHW pricing submission — earliest window for water/sewer funding | Future |
| 2029–2033 | Medium term: Urban renewal focus, no greenfield rezoning required | Future |
| 2034 onwards | Long term: Greenfield structure planning only if required | Future |
| ~2034 | Earliest plausible start for Western Growth Area PSP | Speculative |
| ~2040–2045 | Earliest plausible start for NW Growth Area PSP preparation | Speculative |
| 2051 | Plan for Victoria housing target horizon | Policy horizon |
| 2053–2063 | DCP timeframe for NW Growth Area Precinct 4 | Framework Plan |
| 2058–2066 | DCP timeframe for NW Growth Area Precinct 5 | Framework Plan |
Critical Milestones for NW Growth Area Progression
Before PSP preparation can meaningfully commence, the following milestones must be achieved:
- CMP review completion (Action 3) — no formal timeline; discussion ongoing at Stakeholder Reference Group
- Alternative transport solution identified (Action 27) — requires full traffic modelling of Cuthberts Road/Airport Road capacity alternatives
- Link Road Stages 2–3 funding confirmed — requires State or Federal commitment not yet secured
- CHW water and sewer funding committed — earliest post-2028 pricing submission
- Demonstration of greenfield supply need — requires existing supply substantially consumed
- Plan for Victoria settlement boundary confirmed — outcome unknown
None of these milestones is under Council’s sole control. All require external agencies, state government decisions, or infrastructure authority funding processes. The NW Growth Area is therefore subject to compounding uncertainty across multiple independent decision-makers.
Fiscal and Risk Analysis for Council
Quantified Fiscal Exposure
The SGS DCP Assessment quantifies Council’s fiscal exposure under three scenarios. The exposure is material in all cases:
| Scenario | Council gap (NW) | Council gap (West) | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Higher external demand | $208.3M | $177.6M | $385.9M |
| Lower external demand (CIL cap) | $42.0M | $52.0M | $94.0M |
| Lower external demand (all DI) | $18.2M | $13.0M | $31.2M |
(Source: 14-august-2024-planning-delegated-committee-meeting-agenda-with-attachments.txt, SGS Assessment Tables 4–6)
For context, the City of Ballarat’s annual capital works program is typically in the range of $30–50 million. The higher-external-demand scenario — which assumes the state government does not fund regional-serving infrastructure — would require Council to commit approximately 8–10 years of its entire capital works program to the NW Growth Area alone.
Off-Balance-Sheet and Implied Commitments
Beyond the quantified DCP gap, Council faces additional fiscal exposures that are not captured in the SGS modelling:
- Ongoing operational costs: Three sewer pump stations, the Indoor Recreation Centre, three community centres, 49 ha of open space reserves, and hundreds of kilometres of roads and footpaths require ongoing maintenance and operation — with annual costs likely in the $3–5 million range at full development
- CMP review costs: Estimated
200,000–500,000 - Alternative transport modelling:
500,000–1,000,000 - PSP preparation costs: $5–15 million over 5–7 years
- Land acquisition interim costs: Potential early acquisition of strategic parcels for drainage, open space, or infrastructure
- Ballarat West PSP review costs: Shared with existing growth area, currently underway
Risk Register
Red (Critical) Risks:
- Heritage-transport impasse unsolvable — Probability: Moderate-High. Impact: Project non-viable or substantially delayed. Mitigation: Invest in alternative transport modelling early (Action 27)
- Link Road funding never secured — Probability: Moderate. Impact: Transport strategy requires redesign; both growth areas affected. Mitigation: Council continues advocacy; prepare fallback options
- CHW does not fund water/sewer — Probability: Moderate. Impact: Development cannot proceed. Mitigation: Council engages early in post-2028 pricing submission process
- Plan for Victoria settlement boundary excludes NW Growth Area — Probability: Uncertain. Impact: Project cannot proceed. Mitigation: Participate in Plan for Victoria consultation
- Council fiscal exposure exceeds capacity — Probability: High under higher-demand scenario. Impact: Other Council priorities displaced. Mitigation: Stage development; negotiate state contributions
Amber (Significant) Risks:
- National Heritage List re-nomination succeeds — Adds EPBC Act requirements
- Airport Environs Overlay expands — Reduces developable area or requires noise attenuation
- Koala habitat expanded under ESO5 — Reduces developable area
- Contamination from mineshaft (site ID 377047) requires remediation — Specific parcel impact
- Endangered vegetation offsets significantly reduce NDA — Yield reduction
- Community opposition to Avenue of Honour impacts intensifies — Reputational risk for Council
- Climate change increases flooding/drainage requirements — Higher infrastructure costs
Green (Manageable) Risks:
- Aboriginal cultural heritage findings constrain layout — Can be designed around
- Visual sensitivity in Precinct 5 requires low-density zoning — Yield reduction already contemplated
- Bushfire Management Overlay requires design mitigation — Standard practice
Council Strategic Options
Given the quantified risks and the IGAF’s clear direction to defer the NW Growth Area, Council has several strategic options:
Option 1: Active deferral. Formally confirm the NW Growth Area as a long-term reserve. Do not commit further PSP preparation resources. Continue biannual land supply monitoring. Respond to IGAF recommendations. Cost: Low. Yield outcome: Preserved option. Heritage: Protected.
Option 2: Pre-PSP technical work. Council officers indicated at the 14 August 2024 Planning Delegated Committee meeting that they “will look to bring forward some of the technical work that would normally occur as part of the PSP, to reduce PSP preparation timeframes.” This option invests modestly in Action 1 (Cultural Values Assessment), Action 5 (Aboriginal Cultural Heritage), Action 6 (mining investigation), and Action 27 (alternative transport solutions) — de-risking the eventual PSP. Cost: Moderate ($2–5M). Yield outcome: Preserved option. Critical path: Accelerated.
Option 3: Resolve heritage-transport impasse first. Prioritise Action 3 (CMP review) and Action 27 (alternative transport) as standalone investigations. The outcome determines whether NW Growth Area proceeds at all. Cost: Moderate ($1–3M). Yield outcome: Clarified. Heritage: Preserved or renegotiated.
Option 4: Abandon NW Growth Area. Formally remove the NW Growth Area from the Ballarat Planning Scheme as a growth area. Rezone to Rural Living or maintain CDZ1. Focus all growth area resources on Western Growth Area and Ballarat North Expanded Area. Cost: Low. Yield outcome: Forgone (~8,560 dwellings). Heritage: Fully protected. Political: Controversial.
Option 5: Partial precinct approach. Proceed with Precinct 4 only (southern portion, closer to existing infrastructure, better heritage integration possibilities). Defer Precinct 5 indefinitely. Cost: Moderate. Yield outcome: Reduced (~6,160 dwellings). Heritage: Partially protected.
The 14 August 2024 Planning Delegated Committee decision implicitly aligns with Option 2 (pre-PSP technical work) while maintaining the strategic framework of Options 1 (active deferral). No formal decision has been made on Options 3–5.
Comparative Benchmarking
Comparison with Other Ballarat Growth Fronts
| Metric | Ballarat West | Northern Core | Western GA | NW GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Area (ha) | 1,290 | 567 (Core) | 1,035 | 687–698 |
| NDA (ha) | N/A | N/A | 862 | 500 |
| Dwellings (target) | ~9,000 | ~5,700 | 12,900–17,200 | 7,200–9,600 |
| DCP rate/NDHa | $316,339 | $672,901 (draft) | 520,913–710,494 | 490,288–882,800 |
| Status | Active PSP (~39% to SoC) | PSP in preparation (Amendment C256ball) | Framework Plan adopted | Framework Plan adopted |
| Heritage constraint | Partial (AoH east section) | None material | None material | Major (AoH full length) |
| Airport constraint | None | None | Partial (OLS edge) | Major (runway centreline) |
| Distance to CAD | 8 km | 5–10 km | 10.3 km | 11.4 km |
| IGAF priority | Existing zoned | Short term priority | Medium term | Last in queue |
| DCP timeframe | Active | To 2032 | 2034–2055 | 2053–2066 |
| Blocks | Immediate dev | Expanded Area | NW Growth Area | None |
(Source: synthesised from multiple documents)
The NW Growth Area ranks worst or equal-worst on almost every comparable dimension: highest DCP rate, most severe heritage constraints, greatest distance from CAD, last in priority queue, latest development timeline. It is the weakest greenfield proposition of any Ballarat growth area by a substantial margin.
Comparison with Other Regional Victorian DCPs
| Area | DCP Rate/NDHa | Relative to Ballarat West | Relative to NW GA Precinct 5 (high) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ballarat West (existing) | $316,339 | 1.00x | 0.31x |
| Shepparton South East (draft) | $411,223 | 1.30x | 0.40x |
| Ballarat North (draft) | $672,901 | 2.13x | 0.66x |
| NW GA Precinct 4 (low) | $476,289 | 1.51x | 0.46x |
| NW GA Precinct 5 (low) | $548,715 | 1.73x | 0.54x |
| NW GA Precinct 4 (high) | $835,891 | 2.64x | 0.82x |
| NW GA Precinct 5 (high) | $1,025,446 | 3.24x | 1.00x |
(Source: 14-august-2024-planning-delegated-committee-meeting-agenda-with-attachments.txt, SGS Assessment Table 15)
NW Growth Area DCP rates are 1.5–3.2x higher than the existing Ballarat West DCP benchmark. SGS notes this “may present a challenge to the viability of developing these growth areas.” At the upper end, the DCP alone represents 50,000+ per lot — before land cost, subdivision costs, and developer margin. For context, English lot yields in regional Victoria typically produce revenue of 180,000–$280,000 per lot, meaning DCP alone could consume 20–30% of gross revenue at the high-end scenario — a level at which feasibility is marginal.
Size Contract Note
This page was compacted for UI and Obsidian readability. The underlying source documents and extracted text remain in
Technical Appendix Limits
This page gives a strong high-level growth-area reading, but parcel-level and infrastructure-item-level conclusions remain limited by missing or incomplete Taylors, SGS, One Mile Grid, Alluvium, ASR, airport, servicing, drainage and project-sheet appendices. Use the page to understand growth sequencing and strategic dependencies, not to quote final basin impacts, road-trigger thresholds, DCP rates, land-take figures or parcel-specific infrastructure charges until those appendices are present and cited.